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Friday, October 30, 2026

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@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

For anyone chasing yield while everyone seems bearish on duration, I noticed that $VNO preferreds are currently yielding >8.2%, while Manhattan office leasing activity is at its strongest level since 2000. At the same time, I struggle to see credit risk here. The sector seems to have weathered the worst of the downturn, Vornado's balance sheet looks more than capable of handling its corporate debt obligations, and several major refinancings are now behind it. Personally, my hurdle is higher, and as a 🇭🇷 investor, the currency risk and 30% US dividend withholding tax make the setup much less attractive to me. But I figured it was worth sharing for anyone looking for income opportunities.
@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

I have no horse in the race, but I don't get why $MNRO bulls are so surprised by the market's reaction to a quarter as shitty as this one, especially after Monro brought in a “turnaround specialist” and closed a bunch of underperforming stores. By now, I don't think anyone disputes that the company is in play, with Icahn and Gabelli pushing for a sale. That said, I'd guess Mavis is still digesting the Pep Boys acquisition, and there aren't all that many buyers willing and able to pay up for a deal like this. With interest expenses set to rise further in 2027, net debt rising, and operating performance this poor, it seems potential buyers can afford to wait a lot longer than Monro can. And that's hardly the position you want to be negotiating from. Lastly, correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't buy the hard-asset downside protection argument either. Sure, they own some of their store real estate, but its value doesn't come close to covering what the market is valuing the company at today. I think there's a decent chance a transaction happens, which is why I'm following the situation. But until there's some sign of an operational turnaround, the bet seems pretty binary to me. So I wanted to see if there's something I'm overlooking, or if you're simply more willing than I am to take the risk of "no deal."

Investor Letters

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Another Haircut with Avy the Barber

SoFi’s stock case hinges on interest rates, tangible book value and private-credit loan sales after its $1.5 billion equity offering.

SOFI $22B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks

Twilio CEO: ‘Buy the dip!’

Twilio CEO Khozema Shipchandler urged investors to “buy the dip” after earnings sent the software maker’s shares down 17% after hours.

TWLO $39B
The Technology Letter 2 clicks

CoStar: 3Q26 Business Recap

CoStar’s 3Q26 revenue growth slowed to 14% as bookings fell to $37 million, while cost cuts lifted EBIT margin to 8.8%.

CSGP $12B
Speedwell Memos 3 clicks
RYZ · long

Ryerson Holding CORP

Ryerson Holding (RYZ) is a long position following its all-stock merger with Olympic Steel, at 1.7105 RYZ shares per Olympic Steel share.

RYZ $1.5B
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