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Wednesday, October 28, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

SMR reactors last year or quantum...appears the current moments basket of trash stocks with a narrative that doesn't fit the companies is 3rd derivative ai drug discovery plays (genome, simulation software, etc). $TWST $TEM $SDGR $TXG and theres more My favorite is $WGS - opko rehash with key players from there somehow sitting on a multi billion dollar valuation currently. There were caught with billing schemes multiple times at Opko as well as other serious problems (see Philip frost and opko). A member of the board actually still sits on Frosts charity and the CEO was the CEO of Cathie Wood favorite Invitae, that went bankrupt a few years ago. The short story writes itself, seems like a CVNA almost where the setup is pretty opposite, and yet it probably continues to work against you
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Just surfacing this one to demonstrate we are not and never were $snap absolutists. We will go long and short and when facts and circumstances change our opinion changes too. And NO - Specs will not be a mass market hit this holiday season. Too expensive and awk form. But here's the bull case from here: 1. FCF/Share is the metric mgmt now focused on. By definition that requires fresh cost and SBC discipline. 16% hc reduction and flat share count already in place. $500mn in opex savings about to flow through. 2. Ads biz stable enough. 9% growth in Q2. Guide implies so decel. But ad checks stable vs Q2. Decent enough. Some progress on ad tech. Only needs 5% growth next year to hit our numbs. 3. Sub biz $1.2B rr, growing 85%. Needs 50% growth next year to hit numbs. 25mn paid subs, still well below penetration threshold of 7-12%. 4. Specs tech is real. 7k+ patents. Real use cases. What's that worth? $META or $MSFT or $AMZN could buy Specs for the patents alone and pay $2B and it would be nothing to them but all the call optionality which could incubate until form factor is mass market. 5. Lets just say Specs is worth $2B to a strategic buyer or partner. That implies $snap 7.5B or $4.5/ share. In this scenario then FCF/share at SNAP goes to over $1/share, easily. So 4.5x FCF on a business still growing revenue mid teens. @evanspiegel Specs are cool. But can't keep spending $500mn a year on them. Bring in a minority investor please and lets make SNAP stock great again. @IrenicCap
@BlueDuckCap 2 clicks

BDC on X

Maybe this earlier post is hyperbolic. But Specs potential is real and the applications are very real and the implied value to $snap is negative. Btw go back and look at all my snap tweets - been as big a bear as any of you. But the worm is turning. Sub business 85% yy $1b+ rr and ads stable and 16% HC reduction to cut $500mn opex and SBC offset by buyback. So there’s a lot to like here and if specs can get a minority investor which i think is much more likely after today then game on. Oh and by the way snap could still cut opex by 50% just to get in line with $rddt on cost/employee.

Investor Letters

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The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…

IREN $9.9B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

KNSL $8.3B
Bearstone 8 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/23/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ally’s improving credit and capital returns, Pepsi’s weak beverage brands, and Match Group’s plan to revive…

MTCH $9.7B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks
WULF · long

Terawulf INC

TeraWulf is shifting from bitcoin mining toward data centers, seeking a higher-quality and more defensive business model.

WULF $5.4B
Value Investors Club

MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4.3B
Monte Independent Investment Research 6 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $6B
Latticework by MOI Global 34 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $6B
Latticework by MOI Global 5 clicks

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