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Tuesday, October 27, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

$SPCX's Starship reached orbit and delivered cargo. The gigawatts still depend on how often it flies. We have been building the orbital-compute case with three key inputs: kilowatts per ton, tons per flight, and flights per year. 1) Ship 41 reached orbit, about 275 km, and released all 26 Starlink V3 satellites. They are in service. Until this flight Starship had only made short hops and come straight back. 2) The flight was shorter than the plan. One of six upper-stage engines shut down early, and the ship came down at the first health check after deployment, about three hours after launch, instead of staying up for about ten hours. Both stages splashed in the ocean. That was the plan. The ship can take a hard splash and be scrapped. It still delivered a commercial payload. Catching it is how later flights get cheaper. 3) A typical 1 GW site on the ground loses about 370 MW to power conversion, cooling and other overhead that is not the chips. Elon has said terrestrial solar produces about an eighth of the power of the same panel in space: no night, and no atmosphere in the way. In orbit most of that 370 MW overhead goes away as well. Sunlight is continuous, and the heat leaves through radiators. 4) On our Special View assumptions, year 4 is 200 tons at 100 kW per ton, which is 20 MW on one flight. Five hundred flights is 10 GW. Year 5 is still 20 MW a flight. Five thousand flights is 100 GW. The tons and the kilowatts stay the same. The flight count is what changes. Flight 14 showed Starship can reach orbit and deliver cargo. The 10 GW and the 100 GW still depend on how fast SpaceX can fly it again, and at what price.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Someone really should investigate the price action into some of these ancillary biotech stocks.....very reminiscent of a certain Situational Awareness with chip stocks earlier in the year. No one is filing ownership and yet these stocks push higher regardless of macro, or geopolitical news or the overall index moves. Someone with swaps? or options likely at play then using the momentum pf retail and algos to add to the bid. The trade is melting up perfectly to the end of the quarter (not surprised to see them even more aggressively up today than usual to mark performance). We saw this with the chips trade after an unprecedented April-June. But some of the moves with this trade exceed that euphoria (Look at $TXG, $TWST, $SDGR, $RGEN, $GRAL, and a host of other companies)........DO we see the similar move after a giant quarter with a reversal to kick of the next quarter, that was the fate with chips and caused the fund to blow up. Be interesting to see if they learned any lessons, Im guessing not based on recent performance, and if it is a different player the strategy looks the same. These companies need financing and should hit the market bid which is what set off Viacom and was the undoing of Bill Huang in 2021. Lets see, but a basket of these stocks looks interesting at current levels sometime today for gravity/secondaries to come early in Q4
@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

No one earned this drawdown more than the growth-at-any-price bros paying >100x trailing P/E for $FICO at the 2024 high...with revenue at record levels and net margins having expanded from ~LDD% to ~30% in just six years. If you're even slightly off on any of the ambitious assumptions you must have been making around market position, pricing-driven growth, or the exit multiple, you lose A LOT of money. That said, if there’s a definition of a business worth paying up for, FICO is probably it. Or was... interpreting what the recent changes to the mortgage-scoring landscape mean is no small feat for a tourist like me.

Investor Letters

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Right-Sizing Memory

Micron’s AI memory demand depends on workload-specific accelerator designs that shift bits among HBM, GDDR and LPDDR, changing wafer…

MU $946BNVDA $5T
Chipstrat 4 clicks

Are Neoclouds Dead?

Neoclouds face tighter debt financing as AI infrastructure capex outruns cash flow, leaving cash-burning GPU providers more exposed than…

NBIS $42B
Daniel Romero 9 clicks

Reddit: Deep Dive Analysis

Reddit generated $805 million in Q2 2026 revenue, 95% from ads, but slowing Google search referrals expose AI-driven traffic and…

RDDT $18B
Hated Moats 6 clicks

Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM)

Qualcomm supplies chips for on-device AI agents and data center inference, with Meta and AWS agreements expanding its role across both…

QCOM $177B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 5 clicks
WULF · long

Terawulf INC

TeraWulf is shifting from bitcoin mining toward data centers, seeking a higher-quality and more defensive business model.

WULF $5.4B
Value Investors Club

The Data Center Bridge

Small- and mid-cap data center stocks trade as one despite sharply different funding bridges: 12 of 15 cover fixed costs on signed…

IREN $9.9B
CV's Substack 16 clicks

Amkor Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Amkor's Q3 sales were flat at $1.991 billion as computing and automotive/industrial growth offset a 27% communications decline; Q4 sales…

AMKR $10B
Cestrian Capital Research 4 clicks

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