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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@ACapitalLP 3 clicks

A Capital on X

Interesting special situation in $AKER.NO, which owns ~23% of Nscale. Despite the carnage in neoclouds, the FT reported last week that Nscale may still be targeting a $30–35bn IPO before year-end. What makes this interesting is the valuation disconnect. At ~NOK 1,150, backing out Aker’s other holdings and applying its historical ~22% HoldCo discount implies an ~$11bn valuation for Nscale. Below its $14.6bn March round and well below the proposed IPO range. In September, Third Point led a $3.36bn pre-IPO convertible financing alongside Nvidia, Apollo, Citadel and others. The notes reportedly convert at a double-digit discount to the IPO price, with a $30bn valuation cap on the conversion price. Not exactly a group of unsophisticated investors… At a $25–30bn IPO, I get ~27–39% upside assuming some HoldCo discount compression. Even at a $15bn IPO, the downside looks relatively contained under a historical discount assumption. Obviously the IPO could slip, financing and execution risks are enormous, and the broader neocloud unwind isn’t helping. But you can partially hedge the sector exposure with $CRWV / $NBIS shorts, leaving a more isolated bet on the IPO valuation and HoldCo discount...
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

Boost Run $BRUN said on October 26 that it has closed "more than $600 million in non-dilutive project financing" so far in 2026. In my October 19 update, I said the stock depends less on demand than on whether $BRUN can finance the next ~$1B of GPUs without selling shares at beaten-down prices. The release also says: → $BRUN has established "a fully funded runway to accelerate customer deployments through the fourth quarter of 2026," with additional financing "proceeding as planned." → $BRUN delivered the first phase of a multi-phase project to "a leading AI research and product company," which matches its $471.7M May 2026 contract with Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI startup). → Several more projects are "nearing hand-off in the coming weeks." → Founder and CEO Andrew Karos: "Customer payments exceed our debt payments every month." The $600M+ is YTD, and lessors funded $268.3M of new GPU leases in H1 2026 alone. So if those leases count toward the $600M+, $BRUN has closed more than $331.7M since June 30, about half to almost two-thirds of the $527-686M of new leases I estimated its H2 2026 build needs. The release doesn't say what the financing costs or how much of it closed since June 30. However, the Q3 10-Q, expected in mid-November, should disclose how much $BRUN leased in Q3 and at what rate. If the 10-Q confirms the $600M+, I'd drop the $62.2M stock sale from my bear case, and the question shifts from whether $BRUN can fund its build to what the new debt costs.

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.1B
Bearstone 8 clicks

Namib Minerals: Research Flash

Namib Minerals’ How Mine mill reached 55,000 tonnes per month, 36% above prior capacity, while a proposed $30 million Ecobank facility…

NAMM $45M
Atrium Research - Equity Research 2 clicks
ANAB · long

Anaptysbio INC

AnaptysBio is pitched for a 50% to 80% return over four to six weeks after its April 2026 taxable spin-off of R&D-heavy operations.

ANAB $1.5B
Value Investors Club 6 clicks

Investment idea: Flowers Foods (FLO)

Flowers Foods cut its dividend to fund $300 million of debt reduction by 2027 after the $795 million Simple Mills acquisition lifted…

FLO $1.3B
Nugget Capital Partner's Substack

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Lam Research lifted its September revenue guide above consensus, while Microsoft’s capex cut reflects lease accounting and Meta’s AI…

LRCX $301B
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