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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Added back $CRCT short too: One time tariff impacts make the financials look good, but the company is in structural decline: $26.7M of the $47.4M operating income was non-recurring $20.3M of IEEPA tariff refunds and a $6.4M royalty reserve release. Strip them and operating income is roughly half what printed, on revenue that fell 9%. The rest of the bear case: Hardware is in structural decline — down 22%, with lower ASPs on the Joy 2 and Explore 5 launches and heavier promotion. A razor-and-blades model where the razors are shrinking. Platform growth is 5% and subscribers grew 3% to 3.10M. That's the "good" half, and it isn't growing fast enough to carry a declining hardware base. Engagement is flat, not recovering. 90-day engaged users 3.49M against 3.48M. Management framed stabilising active users as a win, which tells you the trend it's stabilising from. Tariff refunds do not repeat. The Q2 comp next year is brutal.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Batch size sets the trade-off between speed and cost in AI inference. An AI server answers many users at once by bundling their requests into one batch. Our $CBRS note compares this to running a bus. There are two ways to run it, and each gives something up. 1. Fill the bus. Put as many passengers as possible on every run. More stops slow each passenger's trip, but the cost of the run is spread across more people, so the cost per passenger falls. Larger batches do the same: each user's answer is slower, and the cost per token falls because the system produces more tokens from the same hardware. 2. Carry fewer passengers and stop less. Each trip is faster, but fewer seats mean the cost of the run is spread less well, so the cost per passenger rises. Smaller batches are fast for one user and raise the cost per token. So in the analogy, speed for each user is how fast each passenger arrives. Cost per token is cost per passenger. A system set up for one gives up some of the other. When someone compares two inference systems, check the batch size behind each number. A speed figure or a cost-per-token figure quoted without it cannot be compared fairly.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.3B
Bearstone 8 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 12 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 13 clicks

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