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Monday, October 26, 2026

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Merger Monday & Election Implications

EQT’s $50 billion merger with Range Resources and Ovintiv’s $1.26 billion acquisition of Logan Energy reshape North American oil and gas alongside Brazil and British Columbia election…

EQT $34BRRC $13B
Bison Insights 7 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Given what is happening with most housing related stocks including Floor & Decor $FND and $QXO, I would have expected to see more insider buying at these companies but that is yet to materialize. We did see the home builder D.R. Horton $DHI increase its stock buyback authorization by an additional $5 billion yesterday (nearly 13% of market cap). The last insider purchase at the company was in 2014. With mortgage rates going up, it might be too early to get into this industry but I am starting to get interested.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Waystar $WAY putting itself up for sale just a little over two years after it went public at $21.50 is surprising to me. I used their product when I used to work in healthcare services. As most startups in healthcare services eventually realize, the money is often made on the backend RCM (revenue cycle management) side of things. Waystar is an essential link between hospitals/clinics and insurance companies helping with claims processing and rejections. Think of them like a midstream oil pipeline company connecting the independent oil & gas producers with refiners. They have hired Evercore $EVR and Barclays $BCS is also advising. The stock is down more than 30% over the last year even after accounting for the pop after this sale announcement. Feels like the baby being thrown out with the SaaS bathwater. The financials however look strong to me whether you consider improving gross margin, free cash flow that is better than net income most quarters or stable debt on the balance sheet. Revenue grew 18% year-over-year last quarters and net margin was nearly 13%. So not a GAAP unprofitable SaaS company that is giving way most of the value to employees through stock-based compensation. I'll have to dig into competitive dynamics and understand the business better. What am I missing?
@KEDM_COM 1 click

KEDM.com on X

Deep Sail @DeepSailCapital turns up twice in our Q2 sweep. SK Hynix was one. Celestica $CLS is the bigger bet: Deep Sail initiated $CLS in Q2 and holds it as its largest conviction: after canvassing the whole space, it sees Celestica as the cheapest way to own the AI data-center build-out, with structural margin expansion and design wins secured in 1.6T and co-packaged optics. Deep Sail puts at least three years of runway on the build-out.
@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

This is the fundamental reason we too like $SNAP. And the catalyst now is that a decade of Specs capital deployment with material negative ROE to date is coming to a cross roads. Either Specs shows enough promise, while fully acknowledging that the units sold this season will not be much due to price point/form factor, OR it's a pretty underwhelming event which will raise pressure to guardrail spend going forward. Wildcard would be some sort of partner announcement. We'd love that to be a minority investor in Specs such as $SPCX where we've found a lot of industrial logic. In any event, FCF per share is going up.

Investor Letters

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Molina & Kinsale

Molina Healthcare and Kinsale Capital’s earnings are reassessed through a long-term lens, emphasizing conviction and detachment during…

MOH $11BKNSL $8.3B
Bearstone 8 clicks

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $22B
CV's Substack 10 clicks
WRBY · long

Warby Parker

Warby Parker's $25 valuation does not capture potential upside from smartglasses alongside its core omnichannel eyewear business.

WRBY $3.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $81B
Doomberg 12 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 13 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B
Net Interest 12 clicks

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