Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, October 25, 2026

Back to today

From X

@kevin__mak 6 clicks

Kevin Mak on X

$CMPS Great article this weekend in Politico about psychedelics. There's overwhelming alignment across the government to moving these treatments forward. Given this, I really can't see COMP360 getting ensnared in the approval process, or worse, through reimbursement/REMS bureaucracy once commercialized. At current prices, I believe the market is treating CMPS as a "risky proposition" because historically, that was very true. I think that regime has changed dramatically in the last 12 months. Spend some time talking to an LLM about COMP360 vs Spravato (>$2B/year in sales). Which would you rather take? But even more importantly, Spravato has <5% market share of Treatment Resistant Depression, the other ~95% of patients are generally seeking options. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds holds a long position in CMPS. Views expressed are current opinions for information only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future performance. See the disclosures link in my bio for more important information. --- The VA has led the push in Washington to advance access to psychedelic therapy. It’s involved in 20 psychedelic clinical trials and was one of the first major health care systems to roll out Spravato, an FDA-approved treatment for depression using esketamine, a chemical component found in ketamine. Ketamine — an anesthetic frequently referred to as a psychedelic due to its psychoactive effects — is currently the only psychedelic-like drug approved for medical use. Trump administration officials say they hope more will be approved soon. “We want to see the drug approved if it’s safe and effective, and the reason why is because there’s a mental health crisis,” Matt Zorn, deputy general counsel at the Health and Human Services Department, told POLITICO.
@aleabitoreddit 6 clicks

Serenity on X

Just another $40B going into the "AI Infra" Bubble... Elon stated this $SPCX financing would primarily fund $NVDA GPU procurement H1 2027. Which indirectly increases demand for memory, networking, etc needed. In some other notes, VPEC today in UDN: "InP substrates is seriously in short supply" in regards to suppliers like $AXTI. - Morgan Stanley believes that InP substrates, EML and CW lasers will be the primary bottlenecks - VPEC emphasized that whoever can secure more raw material supply in the future will have greater pricing power and influence in the market. Very true about supply procurement... both upstream materials like epiwafers/substrates to ultimately compute. We're in a volatile period where all your largest companies in the world are fighting over control of the future of AI infrastructure. Any slowdown seems unlikely.
@ParadisLabs 8 clicks

Paradis on X

The fact that there's such varying opinions on the neocloud market is a factor behind the constant stock price volatility. For example, Barclays are bearish while GS are bullish. So while the most recent sell-off is driven by financing & cost of capital concerns, nobody really knows what the ecosystem will look like in December, let alone 2028+. These companies are becoming increasingly impossible to forecast, so Elon & Chamath's comments should be taken as a serious source of information IMO...even if you think they have alterior motives. Consolidation seems likely and IMO there are 3 standout neoclouds: $SPCX, $NBIS and $CRWV.
@aleabitoreddit 3 clicks

Serenity on X

Not actively. I've been pointing out issues with Neocloud/Colo financing since 2025 from $SLNH to $CRWV debt interest. And maintain my opinion only a few neoclouds would survive in a few years, given they build enough of a moat to differentiate themselves against hyperscalers. So I don't think Elon's comments are completely wrong about Neoclouds, but there's nuances. One example was $NBIS SOFR + 2.75% $3.5B facility with Citibank, which actually has better rates than GPU financing from $2T+ companies. So kinda hard to say neocloud financing has "entirely shut off" since this Citibank facility was announced 3D ago I'm not arguing the merits of Elon's claims here. There's some truth to them, even if they're framed in extremes. I'm happy to hear his opinion on the direction of the industry... but if they're mainly amplifying concerns about competitor downfall (which benefits $SPCX + $TSLA) There's some cause for concern about how healthy that is to the town square dynamic Elon originally envisioned with X.

Investor Letters

All letters

Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run…

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 10 clicks

Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $83B
Doomberg 11 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $30B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 12 clicks
SCEYF · long

Source Energy Services LTD

Source Energy Services is Western Canada’s dominant integrated frac-sand producer and logistics provider, supplied by three Wisconsin…

SCEYF $96M
Value Investors Club 1 click

Matan on Stitch Fix

Stitch Fix’s rushed Freestyle pivot cannibalized its profitable Fix business, driving active clients below 3.4 million, quarterly revenue…

SFIX $342M
MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

MercadoLibre: Valuation Model

MercadoLibre’s sum-of-the-parts model values commerce and payments on FCFF, credit on equity returns, producing a $1,980 base-case target…

MELI $84B
Hated Moats

U-Haul Bought at the Top

U-Haul’s pandemic-era fleet purchases at inflated prices now drive higher depreciation and disposal losses as truck and van prices…

UHAL $11B
scuttleblurb 2 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 109

YouTube 4

Blogs 15

Seeking Alpha 64 of 257

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

91 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

190 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.