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Saturday, October 24, 2026

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Tower Semiconductor Deep Dive

Tower Semiconductor’s low-loss photonics chips halve lasers in 1.6T optical modules, supporting a $680 million annualized photonics run rate and customer wafer prepayments through 2027.

TSEM $19B
CV's Substack 6 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

Our DCFs usually assume a tech company settles into 3% growth forever. Very few ever do. We forecast growth for several years, then step it down linearly to a 3% sustainable (terminal) growth rate at the end of the explicit forecast period. Most of our valuations are tech stocks, so we use 3%: if the broad US economy grows ~2-2.5%, a frontier company presumably grows faster. But tech has little middle ground of steady single-digit growth. Companies grow double digits, or get acquired, or their revenue declines, often until they get acquired. $CSCO and $IBM are rare exceptions. Huge installed bases, enterprise lock-in and services carried them through their single-digit stretches. An industrial that has grown ~3% a year for decades is a very different dynamic. It has a mature market, a few main players plus some smaller ones, not that much competition and no real danger of being acquired. Its moats are physical; its demand saturates rather than disappears. Tech advances civilization and pushes the frontier of productivity and what humans can do. That attracts more competition and more players wanting a piece. We think three things squeeze out the middle. Products get replaced by the next platform rather than maturing. Near-zero marginal cost lets the scale leader undercut on price and outspend on R&D once growth slows. And the market marks slow growers down into cheap targets for buyers who cut costs and fold them in. So setting a sustainable growth rate for tech is theoretically more challenging. Our 3% is really a bet that the company reaches a durable, mature state. A more honest framing is scenarios: durable compounder, acquired, or decline. 3% is a blend of outcomes, none of which looks like 3%.
@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

$PNG.V: Kraken is the subsystem prime for AUVs, batteries, sonar and navigation (via Covelya/Sonardyne) so it captures $3–5m of content per hull as Anduril and the navies scale up uncrewed fleets $THEON: Theon is NATO’s night-vision franchise, just got into counter drones. Cheap, and growing +20% $MOD — After the October 1 spin, Modine is a pure-play data center cooling company the market still prices like an auto-parts supplier, at roughly 10x FY28E EBITDA versus Vertiv near 40x, while large chillers and air handlers for Google and Amazon grow 60%+ $TOI.V — Topicus is Constellation’s European vertical-software arm, with 6% recurring organic growth. I think it re-rates once the new CEO puts its €180m+ half-yearly free cash flow back to work on acquisitions.

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Margin Call

Petrobras’s Morpho-1 well revived hopes that Brazil’s Equatorial Margin can become a major new oil frontier after hydrocarbons were…

PBR $96B
Doomberg 6 clicks

Our Views on CoreWeave

CoreWeave's financial statements point to a business model familiar to the authors after a closer review of the AI infrastructure company.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 10 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B
Net Interest 8 clicks
TCEHY · long

Tencent Holdings LTD

Tencent, valued near $500 billion, is a long idea built on its Chinese gaming, social-network and advertising franchises.

TCEHY $449B
Value Investors Club

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B
Best Anchor Stocks 12 clicks

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