Friday, October 23, 2026

AI Narrative Switched, Debt Yields Spike | The Weekly Wrap

CoreWeave’s rising debt yields and fading confidence in AI data-center economics frame a weekly review of Meta, Tesla, SpaceX, Netflix, French bonds and housing.

CRWV $34BTSLA $1.5T

Steve Eisman Oct 23 26 clicks

Oct 23 CRWV $34B

Our Views on CoreWeave

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 11 clicks

Oct 23 BE $56B

Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE) Q3 FY12/26 Earnings - Revenue Up 138% On The Datacenter Power Race

Cestrian Capital Research 6 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Sep 24 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

*BLUE ORIGIN RAISES $10B AT $140B VALUATION: WSJ Blue Origin’s first ever outside capital raise. Per WSJ they’re expecting to do $1.4B in revenue this year, and over $30B by 2030. That puts their valuation at 100x this year’s sales. $SPCX is valued at only around 45x FY26 sales estimate. SPCX looking like a steal

@leevalueroach Sep 24

Lee Roach on X

Disclosing a large short position in $META. Thesis: Muse is offered free of charge with no meaningful cap on inference consumption. Meta is absorbing the full cost of compute, memory, and power on every query in pursuit of user growth. We believe this subsidy is unsustainable under adversarial usage. Position: We have deployed 10,000 endpoints running maximally compute-intensive workloads on a continuous basis. Deployment is scaling at 10,000 units per day. Unit economics: Our marginal cost per endpoint is approximately $300, incurred once. Meta's cost per endpoint is recurring and uncapped. We view this as a highly asymmetric trade. Channel checks: Retail sources confirm unusual laptop demand in the region. We are the source of that demand. Risks: Rate limiting, supply constraints at our primary vendor, and rising operating expenses on our side. Outlook: We expect material margin compression, a miss on next quarter's earnings, and elevated data center thermal risk. This is called activist investing.

@negligible_cap Sep 24

Negligible Capital on X

*AKAMAI SHARES SURGE OVER 20% POSTMARKET ON ANTHROPIC PACT $AKAM reported an $11.6B multi-year pact with Anthropic – deal may expand upp to $20B total, and AKAM issues warrants to Anthropic for up to 5% of the company. $AKAM sees $5.5B in capex tied to the pact https://t.co/8a9xf4uJfX

@ChrisCamillo Sep 24 1 click

Chris Camillo on X

if u thought Zuck’s metaverse spending was insane, wait until we see $META’s $AMZN Bedrock and graviton bill to keep Muse running.

@ACapitalLP Sep 24

A Capital on X

$FSLR @ $173 way too cheap. Thx.

@leevalueroach Sep 24 2 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Very superficial analysis on $GME here Jim. Dig into the unit economics and the massive increase in traffic. Who gives a shit about lapping Nintendo Switch 2. How about the recent store openings? Lots of stuff you missed. https://t.co/97nylsGSLC https://t.co/mfS804OMOq

@DeepSailCapital Sep 24

Deep Sail Capital on X

$CRDO Bumping back up to $200. Post earnings dump was an excellent entry point.

@pitdesi Sep 24 2 clicks

Sheel Mohnot on X

I built a trading bot that buys the “most hated” Mag 7 stock each month. Ranks by 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns, buys the worst average rank, reruns monthly. Last month: $META This month: $TSLA Since 5/23 (Mag7 coined): +347% HatedM7 +162% Mag 7 +90% S&P 500 https://t.co/lp1CwoCTGu

Philip Morris: Taking the Fight to the U.S.

Philip Morris reported Q3 growth across heated tobacco, combustibles and e-vapor in Europe while gaining U.S. nicotine-pouch share.

PM $314B

Librarian Capital's Research Library Oct 23 1 click

Amazon’s Trainium Takes a Strike at the Training King

Amazon’s Trainium3 adds native PyTorch training support, targeting CUDA-trained researchers with standard APIs, eager mode and…

AMZN $2.8T

SemiAnalysis Oct 23 6 clicks

Alphabet: Gemini 4 Argon Is Coming For ChatGPT's Lunch

Alphabet's Gemini 4 Argon aims to undercut rival AI models using proprietary TPUs, while Android, Siri and Google Cloud distribution…

GOOGL $3.9T

Dustin Quasney Oct 23 2 clicks

Capital Wars

CoreWeave’s $35 billion to $39 billion 2026 spending plan relies on debt as unsecured yields reach 15%, making its GPU cloud expansion a…

CRWV $34B

Net Interest Oct 23 8 clicks

Spotify 3Q’26: Built for the Background

Spotify's third-quarter results met or exceeded guidance, with 306 million Premium subscribers and €672 million operating income, while…

SPOT $108B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 23 2 clicks

Big Tech Will Spend More on AI This Year Than Walmart Sells

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft plan nearly $800 billion of AI infrastructure spending, testing whether incremental returns can stay…

GOOGL $3.9TMSFT $3.9T

Ezra's Notes Oct 23 4 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/23/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ally’s improving credit and capital returns, Pepsi’s weak beverage brands, and Match Group’s plan to revive…

ALLY $12BMTCH $11B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 23 3 clicks

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) Stock Rating: HOLD After Q3 FY12/26 Earnings

Texas Instruments reported Q3 revenue of $6.06 billion, up 28%, with 47% operating margin and Q4 guidance above seasonal norms; Cestrian…

TXN $260B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 23 5 clicks

Tempus AI: Moderna's New Cancer Vaccine Partner Is The Pick Of The AI Biotech Bunch

TEM $11BMRNA $98B

Edmund Ingham Oct 23 3 clicks

Putting bear cases to rest

Medpace authorized $1 billion of buybacks through 2028 after Q3 revenue rose 8.5% to $716 million; service revenue grew roughly 12% as…

MEDP $18B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 23 12 clicks

Lockheed Martin Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

Lockheed Martin's Q3 missile sales rose 24% on PAC-3, THAAD, GMLRS and PrSM ramps, lifting Missiles and Fire Control backlog to $142.5…

LMT $127B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 23 4 clicks

Industry Primers Podcast: Natural Resources Royalty & Streaming, Part One: The Story

Franco-Nevada, Wheaton and Texas Pacific Land built royalty and streaming businesses by buying fixed shares of mines and wells, tracing the…

FNV $47BWPM $57B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 23 3 clicks

Oscar Health: Up Over 200% From The March Lows, Still Room To Run (Ticker: OSCR)

Oscar Health raised 2026 operating earnings guidance to $600 million-$800 million after ACA-marketplace expansion drove 60% membership and…

OSCR $10B

Emerging Moats Research Oct 23 4 clicks

It’s time to sell the winners again as Western Digital, Bloom report outstanding results, shares drop

Western Digital and Bloom Energy fell after strong quarterly results, extending the selloff in AI-linked stocks.

WDC $132BBE $56B

The Technology Letter Oct 22 4 clicks

Sharp Tech on Video: Netflix Angst, the End of the Internet, and Meta’s VR Glasses

Sharp Tech launches on video, covering Netflix, the internet’s future and Meta’s VR glasses.

NFLX $511BMETA $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 22 1 click

OCP 2026: MicroVCSELs are gaining attention, but microLEDs still have a case

Credo’s microVCSEL pivot targets 10–20m data-center links where copper falls short, while microLEDs compete nearer compute on integration,…

CRDO $28B

Vik's Newsletter Oct 22 5 clicks

Field Trip: AI Has to Be Seen to Be Believed

Seattle AI users report major productivity gains and expect firms to shift from OpenAI and Anthropic toward owned hardware, supporting…

NVDA $5.1T

Aurelion Research Oct 22 15 clicks

Lam Research Q1 FY6/27 Earnings Review

Lam Research reported $8.22 billion in Q1 FY6/27 revenue, with systems up 62% and operating margin reaching a record 40% as memory spending…

LRCX $326B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 22 4 clicks

Meta 3Q’26: Healthy Core, But Investors Spooked by Potential Funding Ambitions

Meta’s ad revenue grew 26% to $63.1 billion, but negative free cash flow and $135-145 billion of capex raise concerns over AI funding and a…

META $1.8T

MBI Deep Dives Oct 22 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #12: Oct 22, 2026

PJM's 6,831 MW capacity shortfall is driving nuclear uprates, with Google contracting 890 MW from 11 operating reactors.

CEG $96B

Trade Ideas Flow Oct 22 2 clicks

Friday, October 23, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

Lee Roach on X

Negligible Capital on X

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Lee Roach on X

Deep Sail Capital on X

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