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Friday, October 23, 2026

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@convequity

Convequity on X

$SPCX's Starship reached orbit and delivered cargo. The gigawatts still depend on how often it flies. We have been building the orbital-compute case with three key inputs: kilowatts per ton, tons per flight, and flights per year. 1) Ship 41 reached orbit, about 275 km, and released all 26 Starlink V3 satellites. They are in service. Until this flight Starship had only made short hops and come straight back. 2) The flight was shorter than the plan. One of six upper-stage engines shut down early, and the ship came down at the first health check after deployment, about three hours after launch, instead of staying up for about ten hours. Both stages splashed in the ocean. That was the plan. The ship can take a hard splash and be scrapped. It still delivered a commercial payload. Catching it is how later flights get cheaper. 3) A typical 1 GW site on the ground loses about 370 MW to power conversion, cooling and other overhead that is not the chips. Elon has said terrestrial solar produces about an eighth of the power of the same panel in space: no night, and no atmosphere in the way. In orbit most of that 370 MW overhead goes away as well. Sunlight is continuous, and the heat leaves through radiators. 4) On our Special View assumptions, year 4 is 200 tons at 100 kW per ton, which is 20 MW on one flight. Five hundred flights is 10 GW. Year 5 is still 20 MW a flight. Five thousand flights is 100 GW. The tons and the kilowatts stay the same. The flight count is what changes. Flight 14 showed Starship can reach orbit and deliver cargo. The 10 GW and the 100 GW still depend on how fast SpaceX can fly it again, and at what price.
@david_katunaric

Mikro Kap David on X

No one earned this drawdown more than the growth-at-any-price bros paying >100x trailing P/E for $FICO at the 2024 high...with revenue at record levels and net margins having expanded from ~LDD% to ~30% in just six years. If you're even slightly off on any of the ambitious assumptions you must have been making around market position, pricing-driven growth, or the exit multiple, you lose A LOT of money. That said, if there’s a definition of a business worth paying up for, FICO is probably it. Or was... interpreting what the recent changes to the mortgage-scoring landscape mean is no small feat for a tourist like me.

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