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Friday, October 23, 2026

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@junkbondinvest 5 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

Anyone underwriting software credit should have a look at this When software buyers adopt frontier models, incumbent vendors see lower spend 43% of the time and flat spend 41%. Only 17% churn... This report (Qualitate) suggests FLAT spending is the stage BEFORE displacement. Buyers pause first w/o ripping out systems that are embedded in a company's ops. Look at $NOW...the AI-related pressure is due to its customers holding spending flat vs. leaving. If this is the case across levered software credit, we likely just grind lower across multiple A&Es w/o a clear hard default in the near-term
@aleabitoreddit

Serenity on X

So update from $LITE + Win Semi ( $SIVE ) foundry: Lumentum in a meeting with Stifel at ECOC 2026 stated: - $NVDA Spectrum-6 CPO UHP demands increased materially. - NPO as larger than CPO, with multi-wavelength external lasers lifting ASPs (Sivers offers multi wave length DFB arrays, read through on higher valued products) - Demand for UHP lasers continues to exceed supply Just a status update in terms of how the optical bottleneck is going (laser prices going up, demand exceeds supply). Digitimes also reported today Win Semi ( $SIVE foundry ) was expanding capacity for CW lasers. - "CW products... are expected to gradually emerge in the second half of 2026", with meaningful revenue contribution likely coming in 2027 and 2028. - Win has strengthened inventory management for InP substrates while moving toward 6-in InP wafers for ongoing process testing. Currently relies on Tier-1 International suppliers. - Many of this was spent on DUV tools from $ASML but (Win Semi's orders spanned machinery, equipment, and fab engineering work) So that answers a lot of questions about Sivers' partner "how is this company securing InP substrates", "4in vs 6in", "production timing" TLDR: - NPO > CPO (per Lite), multi-wavelength lasers going brrr for prices - demand > supply (continuation) - Not sure why people have been bear posting Win Semi when turns out they have everything needed to mass produce CW lasers.
@DOMOCAPITAL 1 click

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

We went through how the recent sale of Pep Boys implies a $30 share price for $MNRO. Will they sell? This is where it gets interesting. About a year ago they brough in a restructuring CEO to clean-up the business (i.e. prepping it for a sale?). However, the clearest sign is this: Historically, Solomon owned 19,664 Class C shares that had more voting right than all of the common shares which was a huge impediment on any push to sell the company. However, on June 18, 2026, these shares were converted into 1,204,908 common shares (taking shares outstanding to 31.25M) after pressure from common shareholders. Essentially, Solomon was bribed with an extra 1.185M shares to give up his voting rights. If the company is sold at $30 per share that would be an extra $35M+ for Solomon. It gets even better. Remember the restructuring CEO? Well, the company also started a strategic review which includes a review of selling the entire company. Guess which banks are involved. Bank of America and Solomon Partners engagement began in May of 2026. Yes, the investment bank that Solomon funded will also be getting a cut of the deal for finding a buyer. Solomon, at 87 years old, now has every incentive possible to sell and sell quickly. And Icahn's sale of Pep Boys to Mavis just laid the groundwork. Maybe Icahn, with 33% economic interest in $MNRO, takes the $MNRO land and Mavis takes the operations. The framework already exists. The Pep Boys deal already closed. Icahn has the cash he needs to buy the land. Mavis has the cash to buy the operations.... Meanwhile.... shorts are shorting 40%+ of the float hoping for a dividend cut. The cut isn't happening, because the company is being sold...
@DOMOCAPITAL 1 click

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

The public markets are really sleeping on $MNRO as the recent closing of the Pep Boys sale in the private markets provides direct, concrete, and indisputable math on how to value $MNRO publicly. Here's the math: Mavis bought Pep Boys for $875,000 per store while Icahn retained ownership of the real estate. $MNRO is, without question, a better operational business than Pep Boys. If we just use $875k/store; however, we get to $975.6M. Subtract net debt of $320M gets you to a valuation of $655.6M. Just like Pep Boys, $MNRO owns its own real estate on about 290 out of its 1,115 stores. The real estate is very lucrative which is why Icahn wanted to keep it in the deal with Mavis. It's likely that the real estate is valued around $1M per store or $290M. Put it all together.... $MNRO is conservatively valued at $945.6M or $30 per share. The market is SLEEPING. It gets better....

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