Friday, October 23, 2026

@DeepSailCapital 14h ago

Deep Sail Capital on X

$CRDO - Others have tried this already. $MRVL and $BDCM have offered merchant AEC DSPs for years. A cheaper merchant DSP hasn’t broken the integrated model so far. Credo’s moat is the system not just the DSP. Credo owns qualification, SerDes, AEC patents, ETC which allow it to keep the full cable end to end. It has deep relationships with five hyperscalers and growing engagement with neoclouds. Anyone that knows the market knows $MXL might try to get a piece of the market but unlikely to get a material piece.

@Mr_Neutral_Man 14h ago 1 click

Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs” on X

Could’ve bought the 7.2% $PSA preferred with half of the money at the peak The annual dividend would be $1.0 mm which would be about $362k more than the current balance $1 mm per yr forever https://t.co/S4Erg9tZYf

@negligible_cap 15h ago 1 click

Negligible Capital on X

*INSTACART EXPLORING A SALE: INFORMATION Sale could value $CART at $16 - $17B and they've had preliminary talks with $DASH and $UBER

@ActAccordingly 17h ago

PAA Research on X

For those scoring at home, THREE c-suite executives have "retired" from their positions at $KNSL thus far this year (COO, CIO, and now the CFO). At a minimum this is a pretty glaring indictment of the company's growth prospects or it could signal something far more troubling. Either way, it raises a lot of questions for a company that has operated with a highly insular culture for a long time.

@convequity 17h ago 6 clicks

Convequity on X

Cerebras ($CBRS) is a taxi built for very fast inference while Nvidia ($NVDA) runs the bus network. Most of the confusion around CBRS comes from reviewing the wrong vehicle. In our view, Cerebras' wafer-scale design and abundant on-chip SRAM let it reach high utilization at batches of roughly 3–4. That makes it exceptionally fast for low-batch inference. GPUs need much larger batches and tightly connected clusters to get there, but their flexibility, scalability and throughput make them the better mass-market token factories. The bus wins on economics when serving many users at once. We think Cerebras is mostly attractive over the next two to three years, provided demand grows enough for premium-priced, high-speed inference rather than mostly low-cost, high-volume tokens. How big that premium segment gets is the main variable in our thesis.

@RagingVentures 18h ago 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

$HAWK came public with MS and GS at the peak of the $PL and $SPCX space pump cycle. Investors likely bought the stock blindly without really understanding the business. Alas, the shareholder base is now transitioning into strong hands. I think those buyers will be rewarded.

@TheBenSchmark 19h ago

JabroniCoin.USD on X

BMO on $CENX: “Discussions centered on tariff uncertainty, Oklahoma smelter progress, current operations, improving free cash flow conversion & Hawesville monetization. Meanwhile, with CENX trading at 2.5x current spot-based EBITDA, valuation is compelling in our view.” 2.5X! https://t.co/3jKwcyjheE

@StableBread 19h ago 2 clicks

Fajasy on X

Here’s where BWX Technologies’ $BWXT stock could be by the end of 2027, 15 months from now, in my bear, base, and bull cases. I value each case on 2028 adjusted EBITDA, since the market will be pricing 2028 numbers by then. For net debt, I use today’s $1.65B minus the $750M from its medical isotope sale, or $0.9B. To stay conservative, I don’t credit the FCF $BWXT earns between now and the end of 2027. Management plans to spend the cash, including on acquisitions, but hasn’t said how much or on what, so I leave out both the cash and any EBITDA acquisitions could potentially add. Therefore, each case’s value is 2028 adjusted EBITDA times the multiple, minus the $0.9B of net debt, over 92.0M diluted shares (its convertible notes only dilute above $262.51). Bear case ($118, -19%) The bear case assumes budgets slip (the government is running on a continuing resolution through December 11), the terms of its Janus contract (the Army’s microreactor program for military bases) disappoint, and new-build orders arrive later than John MacQuarrie, president of Commercial Operations, expects. That implies only 5%/year adjusted EBITDA growth to $735M in 2028, and a multiple of 16x, slightly below $BWXT’s 16.6x at the end of 2023, for a value of $118/share. Base case ($162, +11%, most likely) The base case assumes $BWXT delivers its 2027 framework (high-single-digit growth to $720M of adjusted EBITDA) and grows 10% in 2028 to $790M as new-build revenue starts. That implies the multiple holds at 20x, near today’s, for a value of $162/share. $BWXT’s own 2030 plan goes further. Today’s $15.0B EV is 13.0x the $1.15B midpoint of its 2030 adjusted EBITDA target. If $BWXT hits that midpoint, trades at 18x instead of the base case’s 20x, and runs at 2.5x net leverage (~$2.9B of net debt) after deploying its capital, the stock would be worth $194/share at the end of 2029. With ~$4/share of total dividends through 2029, that’s a 9.9%/year return from $145.70. But getting from the base case’s $790M in 2028 to $1.15B in 2030 takes ~21%/year growth, more than double the 2028 pace, so the new orders and acquisitions outside $BWXT’s predictable core (the programs backed by backlog and long-term contracts) have to show up. Bull case ($204, +40%) The bull case assumes a new-build order lands by early 2027, $BWXT signs a Janus contract on par with microreactor startup Radiant’s (up to $750M), and margins rise toward 20%. That implies adjusted EBITDA of $820M in 2028 and a re-rating to 24x, just under the 24.8x of Curtiss-Wright $CW today, for a value of $204/share. Notably, none of the three cases considers a commercial BANR (microreactor) sale, a Wyoming TRISO fuel plant, a battleship reactor, or a data center customer, so at $145.70/share, you’re getting commercial microreactors and data centers as a free option.