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Thursday, October 22, 2026

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@KEDM_COM 2 clicks

KEDM.com on X

Right Tail @JeremyKokemor bought $HCA at about 12x earnings on a local-density argument: hospitals compete neighborhood by neighborhood, and HCA holds #1 or #2 share — averaging 25-30% of each market in about 80% of its markets, primarily in Sunbelt states. Outpatient access points — 14 per hospital, heading toward 20 — feed the hospitals, and about 75% of admissions arrive through the ER. Margins held in the high teens through 2009, and half the shares have been retired since the 2011 re-IPO. Historically, HCA has compounded revenue at roughly 7% annually and EPS closer to 17%; Right Tail models mid-single-digit revenue growth and 10-15% EPS growth.
@Fierce__beast 2 clicks

Fierce_beast on X

Here's the J-curve stock shape -- many examples of software stocks and high growth stocks, sometimes even large mature companies that release a new product. $MPWR was shaping up for this in November 2024 (I wrote about this and went long) when it dropped a lot after they "lost $NVDA" marketshare, but of course their custom AI accelerator business was growing something like 100% a year, and it was only a matter of time before it showed up in the earnings. It subsequently re-rated after troughing at 35x and had significant earnings growth. Today it goes for 35x again. Will there be another big bump in a few years, maybe robotics?
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

This is the shape of many AI related beneficiaries that I think is the most likely path, a few bumps along the way of course, but more or less the path: $AVGO is an interesting example it has expected EPS growth that looks almost exactly like this, but it doesn't trade for 67.5x, it trades for 20x, which seems to imply that earnings growth rate expectations will pretty dramatically slow down within the next 12-24 months. This doesn't seem likely to me. Of course when I say expected EPS these views are extrapolations of near-term trends and discussions about long-term demand, but all i am making a point about is that if $AVGO's estimates actually materialize roughly like the consensus estimates think, the stock should probably be at least 100% higher.

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MYR Group q3’26 Earnings Preview

MYR Group’s Q3 2026 preview cites data-center and power transmission demand, with long-term service agreements supporting margin growth and…

MYRG $4B
Monte Independent Investment Research 5 clicks

Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 33 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 4 clicks

Unicycive (UNCY):

Unicycive’s oxylanthanum carbonate NDA earned a March 25, 2027 PDUFA date after two manufacturing-related rejections, with no FDA clinical…

UNCY $104M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 4 clicks

Tesla Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis

Tesla’s Q3 revenue was flat at $28.0 billion, while operating income fell 56% as R&D spending on AI rose 69%; SpaceX merger discussions are…

TSLA $1.5T
Cestrian Capital Research 6 clicks

Meta Earnings Update: Q3 2026

Meta’s Q3 revenue rose 26% to $64.6 billion, but $34.9 billion in AI infrastructure spending drove free cash flow negative as it created…

META $1.8T
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 3 clicks

Meta: 3Q26 Business Update

Meta’s Family of Apps revenue grew 26% as Muse reached 10 million users, testing AI-agent commerce while Amazon restricts access and…

META $1.8T
Speedwell Memos 4 clicks

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