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Thursday, October 22, 2026

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@ACapitalLP 2 clicks

A Capital on X

Two event-driven levered equities I’m thinking about this weekend: $XRX and $SVC. $XRX seems simple on paper. Monetize XFS, delever and unlock substantial equity value. But if it’s that obvious, why hasn’t Icahn’s guy done it in eight years? The recent TPG IP monetization suggests they’re willing to get creative, so what’s preventing an XFS transaction? $SVC is potentially more interesting. If the board accepts TKO’s $2bn hotel portfolio offer, you’re creating the remaining net lease portfolio at a very attractive valuation with significant equity torque from deleveraging. My biggest question is whether TKO actually has the financing commitments to close… Thoughts welcome.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

85.5% of the BWX Technologies $BWXT stock insiders have sold in the open market since January 2025 came from CEO Rex Geveden. All 14 open-market transactions since then were sales, totaling 129,322 shares and $20.1M. Geveden accounts for 110,625 of the shares and $17.2M, in two phases: 1) Discretionary sales: 45,625 shares at $107.40 on February 26, 2025, and 25,000 at $179.00 on August 6, 2025, both two days after an earnings release and neither under a 10b5-1 plan (a pre-set trading plan). 2) Plan sales: On August 11, 2025, five days after the second sale, he adopted a 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 40,000 shares through August 14, 2026. He sold 10,000 shares/quarter under the plan, at $197.90, $203.26, $204.81, and $172.50, using up all 40,000. He still holds 192,491 shares directly ($28.0M at $145.70). The last two 10-Qs show no new plans adopted in H1 2026, and the Q3 10-Q, due with results on November 2, will show whether he adopted another plan after the first expired. The other eight sales, by seven executives and directors, totaled 18,697 shares and $2.9M. Most of this selling carries little signal. The other insiders’ $2.9M is small, and Geveden’s 40,000 plan shares were scheduled in August 2025. His two discretionary sales matter more. They totaled 70,625 shares ($9.4M) outside any plan, and including the plan sales, he’s sold about a third of his shares since February 2025. But both came right after $BWXT reported earnings, not ahead of them, at $107.40 and $179.00, well below the $238.42 peak. So the selling isn’t a warning sign, but with no insider buying during the drop, insiders aren’t signaling a bottom.

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Mosaic, Part One: The Story

Mosaic’s history traces the 2004 Cargill-IMC merger and the phosphate and potash mines that shaped NYSE: MOS.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 23 clicks

Mosaic, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Mosaic, NYSE: MOS, is the subject of a second audio program for professional investors analyzing fertilizer producers.

MOS $5.5B
Latticework by MOI Global 4 clicks
EXPE · long

Expedia Group INC

Expedia Group, one of the largest online travel companies, has roughly 3.6 million lodging properties and is expanding internationally.

EXPE $35B
Value Investors Club 1 click

Why I sold OB pick for 26 SVM

Silvercorp’s falling Ying grades, prolonged GC suspension, El Domo execution risk and Chaarat funding needs weaken its valuation despite…

SVM $2B
The Oak Bloke 27 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Three

Vicor’s $66.6 million in AI power-delivery royalties generated about $50 million of operating profit, eclipsing its module business as…

VICR $9.7B
CV's Substack 28 clicks

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