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Monday, October 19, 2026

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From June 1 to October 16, Boost Run $BRUN fell 77.3%, vs. 37.4-58.7% for CoreWeave $CRWV, Nebius $NBIS, and $IREN. That drop in AI infra stocks is tied to to rising bets on another Fed rate hike. Higher rates hurt GPU clouds in two ways, since they (1) raise the cost of the debt that pays for their GPUs and (2) lower what investors will pay today for profits that arrive years later. But all three peers kept or raised their 2026 targets: → $CRWV: Raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $12.4-13.2B on its Q2 call. → $IREN: Raised its year-end ARR target to more than $4B on July 20. → $NBIS: Reaffirmed its 2026 guidance with its Q2 results. The problem is that lenders are charging more now. CoreWeave’s 9.625% notes due 2032 yielded 14.74% on October 16, up from 13.19% on October 1, meaning CoreWeave would likely pay ~15%/year to borrow the same way today. So the selloff came from how investors now see the cost of funding the demand for GPU clouds, not from the demand itself.

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper…

SMTC $13B
CV's Substack 13 clicks
ZTS · long

Zoetis INC

Zoetis, the animal prescription-medicines company, is presented as a long investment despite concerns around its 2026 and 2027 outlook.

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Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Short CNM

Core & Main faces a short thesis centered on the risks in its roll-up strategy.

CNM $8B
Shallow Dives

Short LUMN

Lumen Technologies faces a fading boost from its PCF-related sugar high.

LUMN $4.8B
Shallow Dives

Doubling Down on Iran and OXY

Occidental Petroleum is positioned for oil above $80, with a prolonged Iran conflict and Gulf supply shut-ins pushing prices into triple…

OXY $63B
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