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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 12 clicks

From X

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

In November 2025, BWX Technologies $BWXT sold $1.25B of 0% convertible notes due November 2030 and used $830.8M of the proceeds to repay its old credit facility. The conversion price is $262.51/share, 80.2% above $145.70, and $131.9M of capped calls offset dilution up to $396.24/share. Dilution has been minimal so far. Diluted shares have held at ~92M since 2023, helped by small buybacks ($30M in 2025). But stock comp rose to $20.1M in H1 2026 from $13.7M a year earlier, although it’s still only 1.1% of revenue, up from 0.9%. Management also said on the Q2 call it doesn’t plan buybacks in 2026, despite $347.6M left on the authorization, so nothing will offset the new shares. Even after paying ~$200M for Precision Components Group (PCG) on July 1, $BWXT’s leverage is within its 2-3x target: → Debt: $2.05B ($400M of 4.125% notes due June 2028, $400M of 4.125% notes due April 2029, and the $1.25B convert). → Cash and liquidity: $400M of cash and $1.7B of total liquidity, including an undrawn $1.25B revolver running to November 2030. → Leverage: 2.7x net debt to TTM adjusted EBITDA, or $1.65B of net debt on $602.1M of EBITDA. The $750M from selling its medical isotope business would cut leverage to 1.5x. → Ratings: Fitch BBB (investment grade) since September 2026; S&P BB+ and Moody’s Ba1, one notch below. → Other obligations: $152.0M of underfunded pension and retiree benefit plans. Net debt has hovered between $1.0B and $1.5B since 2023. $BWXT pays a dividend of $0.27/quarter ($1.08/year, a 0.7% yield), raised from $0.25 in February 2026. The company expects $5.5B of capital to deploy through 2030 at 2-3x leverage, with $3.5B left after capex and dividends. That’s what CFO Mike Fitzgerald said at $BWXT’s Investor Day on September 29, 2026, and he also put organic growth first for the $3.5B. But he said $BWXT is “not anchored to the same size of transactions” it has done before, and the deck lists “Disciplined Acquisitions” among the revenue drivers behind the 2030 targets. In other words, $BWXT has the track record and, once the medical sale closes, the balance sheet to go after its 2030 targets.
@ClarkSquareCap

Clark Square Capital on X

Pretty solid technical backdrop for $LUXE. Short interest still at 4 million shares despite the big recent move. 4m shares short take 20 days to cover and represent almost 20% of the actual float (~23m shares). Then you have the company with a $50m authorization -- which could take out another 5m shares or so at current prices. In total, there could be buying for ~9m shares or ~40% of the float in the next few months. Crazy.
@convequity

Convequity on X

We think Google's ($GOOGL) TPU volumes alone could add roughly $11 billion to $14 billion a year to Broadcom ($AVGO) revenue on our illustrative estimates, and Anthropic and OpenAI are a larger opportunity on top. April supply-chain estimates put Google's TPU demand at 4.2 million to 4.5 million units in 2026, rising above 6 million units in 2027. We allow for MediaTek's allocation to rise from around 600,000 units in 2026 to 1 million units in 2027 and assume Broadcom supplies the remainder. At the 6 million-unit level in 2027, that leaves Broadcom with roughly 1.1 million to 1.4 million additional chips compared with 2026. At an illustrative $10,000 of revenue per chip, that would add $11 billion to $14 billion in annual revenue from higher volumes alone. The actual increase will depend on which designs ship and their selling prices. Our working estimates put Anthropic's demand for Broadcom-supplied TPUs at around 1 gigawatt in 2026, rising to 5 gigawatts in 2027. OpenAI's separate custom-chip program has demand estimated at 1.3 gigawatts in 2027 and 5 gigawatts in 2028. Anthropic's TPU purchases overlap with the Google TPU opportunity, so we count those sales once. Together, the Anthropic and OpenAI estimates point to around 10 gigawatts of demand by 2028. Assuming Broadcom earns $10 billion to $20 billion for each gigawatt supplied, that represents a $100 billion to $200 billion revenue opportunity across those deployments.

Investor Letters

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 52 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $9.2B
CV's Substack 19 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

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