Saturday, October 17, 2026

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $13B

CV's Substack Oct 17 13 clicks

Oct 17 COHR $52B

Expert Call | Q3 2026 Optical Components Market Dynamics, Vendor Market Share, & 2027 Growth Outlook

P Equity Research 14 clicks

Oct 17 SIRI $9B

SiriusXM: Dirt Cheap, Looming Catalysts, Short Squeeze Candidate

Eagle Point Capital 58 clicks

From X

@negligible_cap Sep 24 2 clicks

Negligible Capital on X

*BLUE ORIGIN RAISES $10B AT $140B VALUATION: WSJ Blue Origin’s first ever outside capital raise. Per WSJ they’re expecting to do $1.4B in revenue this year, and over $30B by 2030. That puts their valuation at 100x this year’s sales. $SPCX is valued at only around 45x FY26 sales estimate. SPCX looking like a steal

@leevalueroach Sep 24

Lee Roach on X

Disclosing a large short position in $META. Thesis: Muse is offered free of charge with no meaningful cap on inference consumption. Meta is absorbing the full cost of compute, memory, and power on every query in pursuit of user growth. We believe this subsidy is unsustainable under adversarial usage. Position: We have deployed 10,000 endpoints running maximally compute-intensive workloads on a continuous basis. Deployment is scaling at 10,000 units per day. Unit economics: Our marginal cost per endpoint is approximately $300, incurred once. Meta's cost per endpoint is recurring and uncapped. We view this as a highly asymmetric trade. Channel checks: Retail sources confirm unusual laptop demand in the region. We are the source of that demand. Risks: Rate limiting, supply constraints at our primary vendor, and rising operating expenses on our side. Outlook: We expect material margin compression, a miss on next quarter's earnings, and elevated data center thermal risk. This is called activist investing.

@negligible_cap Sep 24

Negligible Capital on X

*AKAMAI SHARES SURGE OVER 20% POSTMARKET ON ANTHROPIC PACT $AKAM reported an $11.6B multi-year pact with Anthropic – deal may expand upp to $20B total, and AKAM issues warrants to Anthropic for up to 5% of the company. $AKAM sees $5.5B in capex tied to the pact https://t.co/8a9xf4uJfX

@ChrisCamillo Sep 24 1 click

Chris Camillo on X

if u thought Zuck’s metaverse spending was insane, wait until we see $META’s $AMZN Bedrock and graviton bill to keep Muse running.

@ACapitalLP Sep 24

A Capital on X

$FSLR @ $173 way too cheap. Thx.

@leevalueroach Sep 24 2 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Very superficial analysis on $GME here Jim. Dig into the unit economics and the massive increase in traffic. Who gives a shit about lapping Nintendo Switch 2. How about the recent store openings? Lots of stuff you missed. https://t.co/97nylsGSLC https://t.co/mfS804OMOq

@DeepSailCapital Sep 24

Deep Sail Capital on X

$CRDO Bumping back up to $200. Post earnings dump was an excellent entry point.

@pitdesi Sep 24 2 clicks

Sheel Mohnot on X

I built a trading bot that buys the “most hated” Mag 7 stock each month. Ranks by 3-, 6-, and 12-month returns, buys the worst average rank, reruns monthly. Last month: $META This month: $TSLA Since 5/23 (Mag7 coined): +347% HatedM7 +162% Mag 7 +90% S&P 500 https://t.co/lp1CwoCTGu

Meritage Homes: Cheaper On Book Than Any Year-End In A Decade

MTH $3.8B

Tim Travis Oct 17 10 clicks

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman examines AI data-center debt, CoreWeave's tech correction and agentic AI's effect on banks as earnings season begins.

CRWV $34BBAC $352B

Steve Eisman Oct 16 22 clicks

RELX: The Risk Segment Makes This Buy Less Risky

RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.

RELX $68B

LA Capital Oct 16 9 clicks

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

OpenAI and Meta push AI agents forward as reward hacking remains a core challenge for model training.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Meta ties AI agents and Meta Connect to its enterprise-platform opportunity.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 17 clicks

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 16 11 clicks

Liberty Global: Things Got Much Worse, But I Am Still Greedy

Liberty Global faces VMO2 restructuring-priced bonds and Ziggo unsecured yields near 16% after owners extracted £5.15 billion since 2021.

LBTYA $2.7B

Andrew Mach Oct 16 4 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 54 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B

Atrium Research - Equity Research Oct 15 7 clicks

LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.2T

Value Investors Club Jul 18 3 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $7.9B

CV's Substack Oct 15 19 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $631B

SemiAnalysis Oct 15 13 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 25 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $92B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 27 clicks

ASML 3Q’26: 2030 Arrived Four Years Early

ASML reported €11.7 billion in 3Q 2026 sales, up 55%, and raised full-year guidance to €44–45 billion as AI-driven semiconductor demand…

ASML $631B

MBI Deep Dives Oct 15 13 clicks

Berkshire B: Holding, Developing Headwinds Have Yet To Reflect In Stock Price, In My View

Berkshire Hathaway trades at 1.46 times book as reinsurance pricing pressure, softer P&C, concentrated equities and cash weigh on its…

BRK.A $1.1T

Pearl Gray Equity and Research Oct 15 3 clicks

[scuttleslops] MRVL, APP, AMZN, Chips

Marvell is positioning networking, optical connectivity and server-management chips as AI data centers link GPUs, custom accelerators and…

MRVL $212B

scuttleblurb Oct 15 12 clicks

AeroVironment: The Value Is There, Growth Will Force The Market To Notice

AeroVironment's $465M LOCUST laser award and earnings beat support its 2027 growth outlook despite government budget uncertainty.

AVAV $6.2B

Melissa Tucker Oct 15 8 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 15 28 clicks

Saturday, October 17, 2026

Negligible Capital on X

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Negligible Capital on X

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