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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@convequity

Convequity on X

$NVDA is still the cheapest way to produce AI tokens when 150 or more users share one batch. When one user wants the fastest possible answer, the economics change. Our Cerebras note puts the rule in two parts. 1. NVIDIA is the cheapest token factory when 150+ concurrent users share one batch and each user gets a moderate speed. 2. To maximise speed for a single user, the batch has to shrink, so the system's total output falls. That loses money per token unless the faster answers are sold at a higher price. Cerebras ($CRBS) sits at the other end. Its wafer-scale chip gives fast answers to a single user and reaches its best efficiency at 4 users. Like a taxi, it is quick and direct, but it has fewer seats to spread the cost across. The two also differ in how much room each has left to improve. SRAM-based designs like Cerebras have already captured most of their performance upside. GPU fleets often run at low compute utilization today, and that gap is room for future gains and economies of scale, not a permanent cost. So fast inference only pays if customers will pay more for speed. Our view is that a sizeable portion of the market will pay a premium for speed.

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2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T
Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B
TSOH Investment Research 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 52 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks
LLY · long

LILLY (ELI) & CO

Eli Lilly trades at 33 times this year’s earnings and 26 times next year’s, versus roughly 12 times for big pharma peers.

LLY $1.2T
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 27 clicks

TSMC Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

TSMC reported excellent Q3 results, guided Q4 revenue growth higher and saw its shares slip despite strong AI-driven earnings momentum.

TSM $2.3T
Cestrian Capital Research 9 clicks

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