Saturday, October 17, 2026

Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B

CV's Substack Oct 17 13 clicks

Oct 17 COHR $52B

Expert Call | Q3 2026 Optical Components Market Dynamics, Vendor Market Share, & 2027 Growth Outlook

P Equity Research 14 clicks

Oct 16 CRWV $34B

Market Cracks Under AI Debt Burden | The Weekly Wrap

Steve Eisman 22 clicks

From X

@junkbondinvest Oct 17 10 clicks

junkbondinvestor on X

$CRWV has ~$10bn of unsecured HY notes, all yielding 14-15%. There’s also another ~$11bn of converts. That’s ~$21bn of unsecured claims, sitting behind the secured debt that funds the GPUs. Here's the latest market pricing on the HY notes (converts excluded): https://t.co/vVxKgKVCRc

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 5 clicks

A Capital on X

The asset base is too large and diversified to ever underwrite loan by loan. The thesis is that the private credit apocalypse is exaggerated, $OWL became the poster child given its reliance on the HNW channel, and the market is assigning far too little value to its non-credit assets and durable fee-generating franchise.

@gnoble79 Oct 17 4 clicks

George Noble on X

@FrenchV33921 Already there with $CRWV and $IREN IS $NBIS worse?

@calvinblissett Oct 17 14 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@sidecarcap This is exactly what I think is happening with $SLM $KSPI and maybe $YB. $KNSL too

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 2 clicks

A Capital on X

@Pembrokestcap But isn’t $OWL reputation, and by extension their ability to raise capital, permanently impaired? Who cares if they own valuable GP stakes and real estate businesses that never tapped the high-net-worth channel? Isn’t the entire franchise structurally compromised?

@finphysnerd Oct 17 2 clicks

Myles on X

Shorts that aren't actually that overvalued (a 10+15% grower trading at 30x earnings can be overvalued, but still easily trade to 40-50x). Sizing is very important. Stuff like $CBA, $WDFC, $WMT, $WING have been some of my biggest winners this year with no catalyst.

@ACapitalLP Oct 17 2 clicks

A Capital on X

My favorite part of this $OWL article… What possible value could investment bankers see in a full or partial sale of the business that the public market is apparently missing? https://t.co/5rjY1IZQv1 https://t.co/yWPrLNBD21

@leevalueroach Oct 17 10 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Wall Street finally started to see the GameStop $GME transformation. Dan Ives just made a comment on the company. Wait until other sheep start piling into the story. https://t.co/PsHMLM94Tv

RELX: The Risk Segment Makes This Buy Less Risky

RELX’s 13-petabyte fraud and identity data moat supports its high-margin Risk segment as its valuation falls to roughly half its peak P/E.

RELX $68B

LA Capital Oct 16 8 clicks

OpenAI Does Math, Reward Hacking, Meta Launches Personal Agent

OpenAI and Meta push AI agents forward as reward hacking remains a core challenge for model training.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

One More Note on Agents, Meta Connect, Meta Enterprise Platform

Meta ties AI agents and Meta Connect to its enterprise-platform opportunity.

META $1.8T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 17 clicks

2026.42: Home At Last

Stratechery’s weekly bundle covers Apple HomeView and SpaceX’s cellular ambitions.

AAPL $5T

Stratechery by Ben Thompson – On the business, strategy, and impact of technology. Oct 16 6 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

NFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 16 11 clicks

GE Vernova: AI's Next Bottleneck Is Electricity

GE Vernova’s 116 GW gas-turbine backlog and $5 billion in early-2026 data-center orders target AI-driven electricity demand, though its…

GEV $251B

Todd Feldman Oct 16 3 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B

WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” Oct 15 53 clicks

ASML Is Building a Hybrid Bonding Tool!

ASML’s patent filings point to a track-based die-to-wafer hybrid bonding tool that could challenge Besi in advanced logic packaging.

ASML $631B

SemiAnalysis Oct 15 13 clicks

CoreWeave: Why Credit Markets See A 54% Chance Of Default

CoreWeave’s 2032 notes yield over 15%, signaling a 54% default probability as borrowing costs exceed rental yields on AI infrastructure…

CRWV $34B

Dustin Quasney Oct 15 25 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B

Speedwell Research Oct 15 27 clicks

QXO · long

QXO, Inc.

QXO, led by Brad Jacobs, is consolidating North America’s fragmented building-products distribution industry after rapidly building scale…

QXO $11B

Value Investors Club Apr 30 4 clicks

The Fleet Owners' Push for Aggregating Demand

Uber’s hybrid-network proposal would keep AVs and human drivers on its dispatch platform, while Waymo and Tesla pursue vertically…

UBER $145B

MBI Deep Dives Jul 27 2 clicks

Ally Financial: The Next Vintage

Ally Financial's Q2 FY26 consumer auto originations rose 21% to $13.3 billion as newer, 9%+ yield vintages replace troubled 2022 loans;…

ALLY $11B

TSOH Investment Research Jul 27

Weekend Digest 351: Market Volatility, TFSL, Roper, Booz Allen, TIPS Vs. Treasury Bonds

AI momentum trades are unwinding as leveraged products amplify volatility; TFS Financial offers a 7.5% yield on cost and potential upside…

ROP $36B

Ian’s Insider Corner Jul 26 1 click

Philip Morris International: Juggernaut

Philip Morris grew Q2 cigarette volumes 1.1%, revenue 9.8% and gross profit 11.5%, while IQOS retained Japan leadership despite…

PM $311B

Invariant Jul 26

Texas Instruments 2Q'26: Not Another Head Fake

Texas Instruments’ 2Q’26 revenue grew 23% year over year and 13% sequentially, supporting management’s view that pricing and demand have…

TXN $253B

MBI Deep Dives Jul 25 2 clicks

TSMC could spend $10B more on N2 capacity. Why won’t they?

TSMC’s N2 ramps at record pricing while 34-36% CapEx, versus 53% in 2021, raises questions about its long-term AI-demand outlook.

TSM $2.2T

Chipstrat Jul 24

Alphabet: Jam Tomorrow, But Never Jam Today

Alphabet’s Q2 EBIT rose 24.8% excluding one-offs as Search, YouTube Ads and Cloud grew, while higher AI capex drove a 6.9% share drop.

GOOGL $4.3T

Librarian Capital's Research Library Jul 24

Netflix: Deep Dive Analysis

Netflix's Q3 guidance points to sub-12% growth as viewing hours rise about 2%, increasing reliance on pricing, paid sharing and advertising.

NFLX $511B

Hated Moats Jul 24

The Neoclouds Series, Part 1: Nebius

Nebius opens a series arguing Nvidia-backed neoclouds absorb the debt and construction risk of AI data centers while driving GPU demand.

NBIS $56BNVDA $5.2T

Kakashii's Materials Jul 24

Saturday, October 17, 2026

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