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Saturday, October 17, 2026

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Semtech Analyst Day Review

Semtech raised Q3 guidance and targets $3.2 billion of fiscal 2030 revenue, excluding upside from its AI data-center optical and copper interconnect businesses.

SMTC $16B
CV's Substack 13 clicks

From X

@InvestSpecial

Dalius - Special Sits on X

$ONT first got hammered on what looked like a temporary earnings blip, completely overshadowing the potential sale thesis. Now another hit. A former employee alleges ONT helped downplay contamination from the 2023 East Palestine derailment. Stock is down another ~25%. It’s starting to look genuinely cheap, but the legal/regulatory overhang is hard to underwrite. A wider investigation, penalties or further civil claims could all follow, and the whole thing could easily complicate the sale process. Glad we didn’t commit here. Any thoughts on the potential exposure?
@convequity

Convequity on X

OpenAI’s TPU lesson makes me more cautious on $CBRS. Richard Ho, OpenAI’s hardware chief and a former TPU designer, says one lesson from Google was that “you have to make it programmable.” Models change too quickly to overfit the chip to one architecture. That caught my attention because TPU is already programmable. Groq statically schedules execution in its compiler, while Cerebras makes a different bet on wafer-scale compute and distributed local memory. The question is how much of the performance advantage survives when models change, including MoE routing and memory demands. Ho also wants hardware that can move across inference workloads without locking the fleet into fixed ratios of specialized machines. That matters when buyers are committing years of capex and power. If OpenAI and other large buyers increasingly favor that flexibility, I expect CBRS to remain a specialist over the next few years. The absolute market can still be large enough for Cerebras to build a very good business, but I’m more skeptical that its architecture becomes the mainstream choice. "As long as you’re willing to live with those limitations, they’re good. But if you’re able to make it programmable, then you have a lot of flexibility for adapting to change. And we had to adapt to change. TPU also adapted to different changes in the algorithm, even at that time with CNNs. Clearly now, in the world of LLMs and agents, the mix is changing pretty rapidly. So that was the pitfall we really wanted to avoid: to overdesign and overfit to one particular model. We looked at it in that context." ---[54] The Man Who Built OpenAI's First Chip TechTechPotato

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/16/2026)

Bumble agreed to a $1.3 billion take-private deal, while Netflix cut about 1,000 jobs and Meta discussed its Muse superintelligence models.

BMBL $783M
TSOH Investment Research 11 clicks

Is The Market Turning The Page?

CoreWeave’s debt and equity price action is framed as a wake-up call for investors amid a broader market discussion.

CRWV $34B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 53 clicks

PesoRama: Research Flash

PesoRama will reach 54 JOi Dollar Plus stores by November after raising C$28.4 million, funding more than 50 additional Mexican store…

TBBB $6.8B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 7 clicks

Modine Deep Dive

Modine, soon Modexus Solutions, has a $4 billion hyperscaler cooling contract but must ramp factory output and restore margins as data…

MOD $9.2B
CV's Substack 19 clicks
SMWB · long

Similarweb LTD

Similarweb (SMWB) is presented as a long, revisiting the company’s digital-intelligence business after two prior VIC write-ups.

SMWB $748M
Value Investors Club 11 clicks

AppLovin Deep Dive

AppLovin rebuilt its ad model with AXON 2.0, lifting LTM revenue to about $7 billion and margins to 77% as Unity competition threatens…

APP $88B
Speedwell Research 27 clicks

Constellation: Stars Aligning?

Constellation Brands trades near $127 at roughly 11x next-twelve-month EV/EBIT, with recent business results offsetting concerns over…

STZ $22B
TSOH Investment Research 28 clicks

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