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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B
Yet Another Value Podcast 87 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Yes these Celsius $CELH purchases certainly stood out when we were looking at insider buys this week. They were also buying at similar prices in May. Although those Nov 2025 purchases by the same director that was buying this week (Hal Kravitz) and by their COO were not timed well. Kravitz was previously a Coca Cola executive and has been on Celsius' board for over 10 years. We usually like to see opportunistic insider purchases by independent directors with long tenure on the board.
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

Could see $JACK, $WEN, $PZZA all go bankrupt. Probably others across the QSR space (subway, Pizza Hut some of the more challenged private operators) -- to be fair some of these could get acquired too but interesting how that would play through commercial real estate and impact the non distressed survivors -- very challenging space with prices having soared (affordability) and consumers pushing back or finding better/comparable value at a Chili's etc. Freight costs (diesel and trucker shortage from policy moves) and food costs that are/will escalate (freight and commodities) is going to bring new challenges to margins. Menu prices likely need to reset lower across many of these chains but that is a very difficult process for owners and franchises to accomplish especially while input costs continue to rise. GLP1s hurt overall volume trends as well but......look out to automation/robotics in store and how trends tend to switch back to QSR/fast food in a more stressed economic condition there might be select opportunities in the coming months for a few players as prices have/are resetting fast across tis space
@KEDM_COM 2 clicks

KEDM.com on X

Right Tail @JeremyKokemor bought $HCA at about 12x earnings on a local-density argument: hospitals compete neighborhood by neighborhood, and HCA holds #1 or #2 share — averaging 25-30% of each market in about 80% of its markets, primarily in Sunbelt states. Outpatient access points — 14 per hospital, heading toward 20 — feed the hospitals, and about 75% of admissions arrive through the ER. Margins held in the high teens through 2009, and half the shares have been retired since the 2011 re-IPO. Historically, HCA has compounded revenue at roughly 7% annually and EPS closer to 17%; Right Tail models mid-single-digit revenue growth and 10-15% EPS growth.

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My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B
Best Anchor Stocks 26 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 13 clicks

ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…

ASML $631B
Cestrian Capital Research 10 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 8 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $382M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $115B
P Equity Research 38 clicks

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