Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BSBUX $109B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 87 clicks

Oct 14 NVDA $5.2T

An Interview with Nvidia’s Ian Buck on Why GPUs Keep Winning

Key Context by Tae Kim 5 clicks

Oct 14 COHR $52B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 19 clicks

From X

@RagingVentures Oct 14 2 clicks

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@orrdavid @merrillmatter To be fair, I asked you *a lot* of questions - $SPCX was far from the hardest! In response, you were fully transparent and didn’t dodge any of my questions. You were great. I can’t wait to share the full cleaned up transcript of our discussion, likely in early November.

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 14 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@HaydenCapital Oct 14 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK

@hkuppy Oct 14 1 click

Kuppy on X

I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC

@gnoble79 Oct 14 8 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats Oct 14 4 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@BlueDuckCap Oct 14 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

@ACapitalLP Oct 14 3 clicks

A Capital on X

$KYIV https://t.co/bGd6IJ4Xl0

My 2028 numbers

ASML’s €11.7 billion quarter benefited from €3.3 billion in installed-base sales and operating leverage, while the MATCH Act threatens…

ASML $631B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 14 26 clicks

Visa: Unpacking The 7 Powers And Forward Valuation Ahead Of Q4 Earnings

Visa’s network economics support long-term compounding, but a 1.7–1.8 forward PEG and risks to high-margin payment revenues limit near-term…

V $750B

C Jessen Oct 14 36 clicks

Deep Dive: Applied Materials ($AMAT)

Applied Materials leads wafer-fab deposition and ranks third in etch, positioning it for tougher 3D chip manufacturing as investors weigh a…

AMAT $359B

Rebound Capital Oct 14 30 clicks

First Tracks Biotherapeutics: Teva Validated The Pathway, ANB033 May Own The Receptor

First Tracks Biotherapeutics’ ANB033 posted stronger Phase 1b celiac efficacy than Teva’s IL-15 inhibitor, with $168 million funding…

TEVA $48B

Equity Eagle Oct 14 8 clicks

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $88BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 14 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 16 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 15 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 13 clicks

ASML Q3 FY12/26 Earnings Review

ASML reported Q3 sales of €11.7 billion, up 55% year over year, and guided Q4 sales to €14.2 billion to €15.2 billion amid capacity…

ASML $631B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 14 9 clicks

Eaton: Strong Backlog And Margin Recovery Support The Buy Case

Eaton’s backlog, data-center, grid and aerospace demand, plus a 450–500 bp H2 2026 Electrical Americas margin recovery, support the growth…

ETN $156B

Value Capital Research Oct 14 7 clicks

APG · long

Api Group CORP

APi Group’s mix of specialty contracting segments complicates a conventional contractor valuation.

APG $17B

Value Investors Club Apr 28 10 clicks

Portfolio Update January 2026

DInvests sold Thermo Fisher, Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Edwards Lifesciences, then bought Pool Corp and Kraft Heinz while adding to…

POOL $5.7BKHC $28B

D Invests Jan 31

Meta: 4Q25 Business Update

Meta’s 4Q25 revenue rose 24% as AI lifted ad performance, but 2026 costs are guided up about 41% and capex to $115–135 billion.

META $1.9T

Speedwell Memos Jan 29 1 click

How We Made 233% Trading a Starbucks Condiment Bar

A Kalshi contract on whether Starbucks would mention “condiment bar” on its earnings call rose from 30 cents to $1 after the term went…

SBUX $109B

First Strike Research Jan 29

Ryanair’s €256M Fine May Be Tip of The Iceberg

Ryanair’s €256 million Italian antitrust fine targets its OTA-blocking system, while internal documents raise questions about Michael…

RYAAY $27B

310 Value’s Newsletter Jan 28 4 clicks

LVMH: 4Q25 Business Recap

LVMH’s 2025 revenue fell 5% and operating profit 9% amid forex and luxury weakness, while Fashion & Leather Goods improved in the second…

LVMUY $218B

Speedwell Memos Jan 28 2 clicks

Market Leader in a Growing Industry Trading at 6x EBIT

Stride operates 89 virtual and blended public K-12 schools in 31 states and trades at 6x EBIT after an operational setback.

LRN $3.4B

Easy Value Jan 26

Lincoln Post: NFLX and Theaters, FCNCA Earnings

Netflix’s proposed Warner Bros. acquisition could preserve or expand theatrical releases, supporting cinema chains such as Cinemark and…

NFLX $511BCNK $4.4B

Base Hit Investing Jan 25

Can AI Read the Market?

Gemini’s chart-only analysis favors Nutrien, soybeans, nickel and sugar, while rating Constellation Software a sideline despite its 40%…

NTR $33B

AmsterdamStocks Jan 25

Mispriced Kalshi Contract: Condiment Bar

Kalshi’s 76% contract price for Starbucks saying “condiment bar” on its next earnings call exceeds a transcript-based estimate of 31.6%.

SBUX $109B

First Strike Research Jan 22

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Raging Capital Ventures on X

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fred Liu on X

Kuppy on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

BDC on X

A Capital on X

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