Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Back to today

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SBUX $103BCMG $38B
Yet Another Value Podcast 81 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Looks like Nike $NKE isn't able to just do it anymore. It will need a significant amount of energy and work to regain its place in stores. I remember reading in Phil Knight's Shoe Dog book that his coach Bill Bowerman felt that runners only had a limited number of all-out races in their legs. I think they were referring to the legendary runner Prefontaine who unfortunately died in a car crash late one night in Eugene, Oregon. Incidentally I was in Eugene last year with some friends for a Ducks game and we crossed Pre's rock a few times as we drove up to our Airbnb in the hills above the University of Oregon. I hope Nike has a few more all-out races left in it. Overall I don't feel like the brand is impaired in the eyes of consumers despite their recent preference for On $ONON and Hoka $DECK. Disclosure: I am long $ONON but have been watching $NKE closely.
@leevalueroach

Lee Roach on X

GameStop $GME hits year to date highs as Wall Street hedge funds are left in the dust as they refuse to even look at the company given prior meme stock scarlet letter, despite the CEO buying $118 million worth over the past year. Every purchase a higher price than the one before it too. All indications that Pokemon market not slowing down and GameStop is sandbagging the back half of the year hard. I wrote up a thesis on the company a month or so ago back. It is about to hit my price target if this keeps up. https://t.co/rExF9W5ILg
@BrokenMoats 2 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Monster run past few days in retail -- $SHOP, $URBN, $EBAY, $ETSY $SHAK etc. especially considering where oil and diesel have traded and the results from $DPZ today..... seems selective still many laggards in each of those verticals - someone making a rates/inflation play or pure rotation slop as they sell chips? Weird(er) is the strength in rate sensitive plays like $w and even $trex relative t the rest of housing like $QXO, $BLDR, $low Opportunities in-between sectors to make our own call based on where you view the data
@ParadisLabs 1 click

Paradis on X

Memory fundamentals are still very strong (stronger than Q1). $MU CEO: - "We expect memory and storage supply demand conditions to be much tighter in fiscal 2027 and 2028 than they were in 2026." - "We do not have line of sight to when supply and demand will return to balance." Back in July, $NVDA supply commitments rocketed from $119B -> $279B which was "primarily related to the procurement of memory", with ~$175B of commitments for 2028-29... $MU also said that >75% of FY27 output is already committed + "a majority of discussions with our customers today are already around 2028." So as a reminder....ultra long-term demand visibility in the context of the memory market. Samsung’s Q3 prelim last week was 107.4T Won O.P. on 195T Won revenue: - So that's ~55% margins company-wide. - Micron did 87% GM in their most recent quarter - $SNDK 84.6% GM. All accelerating/stabilizing margins as of their most recent fiscal Q's. Mass production from new capacity (from Micron, Samsung and SKHY) is also not expected to come online for quite some time. In other words, the shortage will intensify next year at least. Then long-term contracts solidify long-term earnings further via price floors + committed volumes: - $MU with 26 SCAs worth >35% of revenue through to 2030 with some now running into 2031. - $MU CFO: "even at floor prices, we expect margins meaningfully above any prior cycle peak margins." - $SKHY has ~10 LTAs of ~5 yrs w/ pricing structures "designed to respond to price fluctuations." - Sammy (as of recent reporting) holds ~70% of memory capacity under LTAs until 2031 with $MSFT, $NVDA and $GOOGL, with ~25% of contract value prepaid. - $SNDK also has their "New Business Model" agreements with 8 customers that lock in ~66% of fy28. Then on buybacks, $MU will step up returns from December - "over time, we expect to return 100% of our excess cash." Just crazy how much cash these companies are bathing in rn. Obviously there are risks, mainly with positioning and sentiment towards the AI trade currently - thanks to macro/ARR fears/pacing talks/other stuff I'm probably forgetting rn. China is ofc another risk with CXMT but I don't see how they'll be a massive problem for HBM / US hyperscaler RDIMM where they'll continue to face US restrictions + massive qualification walls imo. But ultimately, memory fundamentals are in-tact and very strong. Stronger than Q1.
@DOMOCAPITAL

DOMO Capital Management, LLC on X

Wow - @ryancohen was right. These are not the actions of a value investor. This is hardcore trading. Is there any recommendation @michaeljburry has actually held for longer than a month (or that has actually increased in value) since this newsletter has started??? $GME would have counted in both categories if he had actually held.... Just brutal performance since inception. Maybe this is why he has refused to publicly release his funds performance? I think Burry is the only "big name" investor where the public has no clue what the actual performance of the fund was since inception. Crazy lack of transparency.

Investor Letters

All letters

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 10 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 11 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks

Expert Call | Corning

Corning’s NVIDIA-backed 10x fiber expansion, enterprise connector demand and carrier capacity plans frame its optical communications…

GLW $126B
P Equity Research 37 clicks
WDC · long

Western Digital CORP

Western Digital, a hard-disk manufacturer, is pitched as a long after significant share-price moves deter investors.

WDC $142B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $12B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 4 clicks

Dell's Tailwinds

Dell booked $131.7B of AI server orders in four quarters and held a $95B backlog as enterprise AI demand accelerates.

DELL $367B
Chipstrat 4 clicks

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

UTHR $24B
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

129 publications

Newsletters 107

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 49 of 227

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

88 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.