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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7B
Yet Another Value Podcast 86 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Nike's stock $NKE is down almost an additional 10% since I wrote this in June and what is even more remarkable is that On Holding $ONON is down 31% over the last year. The company went public on September 15, 2021 at $24 per share and closed its first day of trading at $35. All the wins On Running had against Nike, didn't matter because the starting valuation the market afforded the company towards the tail end of the COVID-19 bull market was too high. I have a pair of On shoes and had almost forgotten how remarkably comfortable they are until I switched to an older pair of Asics for a day. Ever since my Skechers shares were acquired by the PE firm 3G Capital last year, I have been thinking about investing in a potential turnaround at Nike or betting on $ONON's growth but thankfully decided against either option. Decker's $DECK with its HOKA and UGG brands hasn't been too hot either, down 14% over the last year. The correct move would have been $CROX or Asics in the Japanese market. But that is hindsight bias. Looking forward, two insiders, including the Co-CEO of $ONON appear to be bullish about the company's future prospects and purchased $2 million worth of stock each according to a Form 4 filed yesterday. The same insiders including the other Co-CEO also purchased shares in May at higher prices. Insiders are often early and that could certainly be the case here but these purchases are making me take a fresh look at $ONON again.
@AsifSuria 1 click

Asif Suria on X

As I was working through the insider transactions filed last week for our Insider Weekends article that we have published every Sunday for the last 16 years, these four buys from last Friday stood out to me: 💻 1. A rare insider purchase by Intel's CEO Lip Bu Tan, where he bought $10 million worth of stock after the recent pullback at an average price of $95.00. $INTC The last purchase before that was by the CFO David Zinsner who bought shares in January at an attractive price of $42.50 per share. Former CEO @PGelsinger did even better with his purchases in 2023 and 2024, the last of which were at an average price of $22.53. He is up 365% on that purchase. Lip Bu Tan previously purchased $2.5 million worth of Intel stock in November 2023 when he was the CEO of Cadence $CDNS and was an Intel board member. 🚗 2. A purchase by the Chief Accounting Officer of Valvoline $VVV at an average price of $33.20. While the size of the purchase was not large at about $50K, you don't frequently see purchases by Chief Accounting Officers. @ChrisPavese mentioned that Valvoline was a top contributor to the Broyhill Asset Management portfolio in Q1 2026. ☕️ 3. A purchase by a director of the coffee chain Dutch Bros $BROS where he picked up 2,000 shares at an average price of $51.56. He also purchased shares in May of this year at a slightly lower price. 🧑‍🎓 4. A purchase by a director of Universal Technical Institute $UTI at an average price of $25.94 after a massive drop in the stock last week. Competitor Lincoln Education Services $LINC was also down sharply and I remember liking the thesis for the business after attending a presentation at an investor conference a couple of years ago. Unfortunately I didn't act and buy stock right away. Lincoln is up over 50% over the last year and is up 365% over the last five years despite this recent pullback.

Investor Letters

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LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $3.1B
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

Deep Dive: Inter & Co

Inter & Co, Brazil’s second-largest neobank, grew over 20% with controlled delinquencies and 15% book-value compounding while trading at…

INTR $3B
Capitalist Letters 7 clicks

You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports…

GLNG $4.7B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks
PTRN · short

Pattern Group INC

Pattern Group is a fragile consumer business targeted on the short side.

PTRN $3.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #10: 8 Oct 2026

US aluminium tariffs, European glass automation and Foraco’s constrained drilling fleet create multi-year pricing tailwinds, with Century…

CENX $3.4B
Trade Ideas Flow 2 clicks

Golar LNG q2’26 Operational Update

Golar LNG ordered a $2.45 billion fourth FLNG vessel, targeting 3.5MTPA of capacity and $400 million in annual EBITDA under a 20-year…

GLNG $4.7B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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