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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7B
Yet Another Value Podcast 84 clicks

From X

@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Waystar $WAY putting itself up for sale just a little over two years after it went public at $21.50 is surprising to me. I used their product when I used to work in healthcare services. As most startups in healthcare services eventually realize, the money is often made on the backend RCM (revenue cycle management) side of things. Waystar is an essential link between hospitals/clinics and insurance companies helping with claims processing and rejections. Think of them like a midstream oil pipeline company connecting the independent oil & gas producers with refiners. They have hired Evercore $EVR and Barclays $BCS is also advising. The stock is down more than 30% over the last year even after accounting for the pop after this sale announcement. Feels like the baby being thrown out with the SaaS bathwater. The financials however look strong to me whether you consider improving gross margin, free cash flow that is better than net income most quarters or stable debt on the balance sheet. Revenue grew 18% year-over-year last quarters and net margin was nearly 13%. So not a GAAP unprofitable SaaS company that is giving way most of the value to employees through stock-based compensation. I'll have to dig into competitive dynamics and understand the business better. What am I missing?
@kevin__mak

Kevin Mak on X

$ABVX We've been here before, about three months ago. Price is controlling the narrative again. In June people extrapolated a handful of malignancy cases into a broken thesis, the stock fell 43%, and then erased a month of losses in a single day when the next data landed. Nothing about the asset changed in either direction. I think the same thing is happening now. The price is lower, so people have decided shareholders are doomed and nobody is ever going to buy the business. The fair argument against me is that the probability of a takeout has fallen, because it hasn't happened yet. List your house, get no bids in 60 days, and that tells you something about your asking price. Silence is information. But big pharma M&A is a market with half a dozen real buyers, competing priorities, and internal politics. Deals come together in weeks or in years. The signal from "no deal yet" is extremely noisy, and people are treating it as a clean efficient market. I think the bigger problem is what shareholders were assuming in the first place. If you expected a $180-200 takeout within three months, at today's price that is a 78% return in a quarter. Call it 50/50 to be "conservative" and you are still assuming roughly 39% a quarter or 270% annualized. (Change the numbers to levels a month ago and you still get the same directional craziness) So the problem was never the price target. Targets have a defensible basis. The problem is the clock. My view: $150-200 over the next 18 months, either from a buyout or from a credible launch trajectory. From here that is 25-50% annualized, which is a number a portfolio can be built on. Roughly the same price everyone else is talking about. I just don't have the same timeline expectation. If a buyout comes sooner, that is the better outcome, not just the faster one. The asset is worth more inside a company that already has a GI salesforce than it is standalone. Disclosure: Creek Drive and its affiliated funds hold a long position in ABVX. Views expressed are current opinions for informational and educational purposes only, subject to change and are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investing involves the risk of loss and past performance is not indicative of future results. See the disclosures link in bio for more important information.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Voss Capital has been increasing its position in Euronet Worldwide $EEFT and sending angry letters, pushing the company to review strategic alternatives. Despite almost all fundamentals moving in the right direction, Euronet's share price had a horrible 2025, mostly on (fears of) increasing competition from digital-first rivals such as Wise and Remitly. Voss argues that parts like payment processing and money transfer could be valued more highly on their own. A full sale could deliver even more (100%+ potential), as it will also monetize Euronet's global licenses and cash generation. Also, it is worth noting that Euronet has been (and continues to be) a true share cannibal.
@AsifSuria

Asif Suria on X

Came across another Flip Flopper Special last night: The organ transplant company TransMedics Group $TMDX is up more than 4% today in a down market after Director David Weill waited a few days beyond the six month period to buy stock at $81.63. The six month part was important as he would have had to give back profits to the company if he had purchased within six months of his prior sale. I looked at his history of purchases and sales of TMDX and he has gotten it right multiple times over the last six years. Dr. Weill, has been on the board of TransMedics since 2019 as an independent director and he was previously the Director of the Lung and Heart-Lung Transplant Program at Stanford University Medical Center. Much like the CEO of $TDW that was mentioned in my tweet below from December 2024, David Weill's last sale was on March 4, 2026 at an average price of $146.82. The insider purchase by the CEO of Tidewater, prompted us to write about the company for our January 2025 Special Situations newsletter and we added the stock to the model portfolio and I also hold it in my personal portfolio. I expect we will pretty much do the same thing with TransMedics for our next Insider Weekends article or our October 2026 newsletter.

Investor Letters

All letters

LQDA: finer powder, higher doses

Liquidia’s Yutrepia sales reached $170.4 million in Q2 2026, while a patent ruling threatens its PH-ILD label but leaves PAH sales and a…

LQDA $2.4B
Trade Ideas Flow 4 clicks

Deep Dive: Inter & Co

Inter & Co, Brazil’s second-largest neobank, grew over 20% with controlled delinquencies and 15% book-value compounding while trading at…

INTR $3B
Capitalist Letters 7 clicks

You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

Brazil’s October 25 runoff puts Bolsonaro’s likely victory at the center of a bullish regional-stock case; Golar LNG (GLNG) also reports…

GLNG $4.7B
WHAT ARE WE DOING? “Contrarians At The Gate” 3 clicks
PTRN · short

Pattern Group INC

Pattern Group is a fragile consumer business targeted on the short side.

PTRN $3B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Thursday Tailwinds #10: 8 Oct 2026

US aluminium tariffs, European glass automation and Foraco’s constrained drilling fleet create multi-year pricing tailwinds, with Century…

CENX $3.4B
Trade Ideas Flow 2 clicks

Golar LNG q2’26 Operational Update

Golar LNG ordered a $2.45 billion fourth FLNG vessel, targeting 3.5MTPA of capacity and $400 million in annual EBITDA under a 20-year…

GLNG $4.7B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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