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Wednesday, October 14, 2026

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October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BCMG $38B
Yet Another Value Podcast 81 clicks

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I listened to the CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA), a ransomware recovery company, explain why AI data labeling companies came to his team. Data labeling companies (firms that turn experts’ knowledge into training data for AI labs) have asked Nubeva whether it could help them label what each malware binary does, like whether it’s secretly encrypting files. Malware often arrives as a binary, a compiled program in machine code, and many are obfuscated, or scrambled to hide their purpose. CEO Randy Chou said in an October 5, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel that Nubeva has spent the last 7-8 years learning to spot homemade encryption, meaning encryption that ransomware authors write themselves instead of using a standard method. Homemade encryption is harder to catch, since it doesn’t match any of the standard methods security tools know. Here’s how Chou described what frontier models (the most advanced models from labs like OpenAI and Anthropic) can figure out today: “Frontier labs out there with their cybersecurity fully enabled, when they do full automation, they can approximately figure out 30% of the malware binaries. That’s the published numbers that are out today.” That claim is in line with GPT-5.6-sol’s 30.5% score on SRE-Bench, a Columbia University-led test of AI models on 262 binaries, but OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra has since reached 56.9%. Chou said that for the other ~70%, a model might flag a binary as weird but can’t say what it does. He mentioned that some malware arrives compressed and obfuscated, then checks whether someone opened five apps, like a browser and Microsoft Office, in the past 72 hours, a known sandbox-evasion technique. If not, the malware assumes it’s inside a sandbox (an isolated computer analysts use to test suspicious programs) and does nothing. Today, Chou said, a small group of specialist cybersecurity labs takes malware apart by hand, and analyzing a new ransomware family typically takes weeks or months. He added that Nubeva has tested binaries written by its own engineers that frontier models couldn’t explain. That’s why Nubeva is now training its own model, which has no internet access, with “hundreds and thousands of AI agents.” The training only just started, but Chou said the timeline Nubeva is working to is “days and weeks,” not the 6-12 months he’d have quoted before AI agents. “I’m putting all my focus on this now,” he said.

Investor Letters

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Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 10 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B
Latticework by MOI Global 11 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B
Asian Century Stocks 6 clicks
SRTA · long

Strata Critical Medical INC

Strata Critical Medical, SRTA, supplies organ-transport products tied to U.S. transplant growth.

SRTA $404M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Vicor Update, Part Two

Vicor uses ITC exclusion-order cases to license power-module patents, with published royalty multipliers rising from 1.0x before filing to…

VICR $12B
CV's Substack 3 clicks

Expert Call | Nebius

Nebius’s 1 GW annual active-capacity target from 2027 is realistic, according to a former product manager, with greenfield data centers…

NBIS $56B
P Equity Research 4 clicks

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