Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BCMG $39B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 85 clicks

Oct 14 SHEN $556M

Private Equity Prints Multibaggers With This Pattern. No One is Talking About It.

Phynvesting 18 clicks

Oct 14 COHR $52B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 18 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 14 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@HaydenCapital Oct 14 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK

@hkuppy Oct 14 1 click

Kuppy on X

I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC

@StableBread Oct 14

Fajasy on X

Archimedes Tech SPAC Partners II $ATII, the SPAC taking atomic-scale coatings maker Forge Nano public, amended the $100M lead commitment in its PIPE on October 13, three days before the October 16 merger vote. Alyeska, the Chicago hedge fund behind that $100M, will now take 7,031,175 of its 10M shares as pre-funded warrants, up from the 3M planned as of September 24. Those warrants cost $0.0001/share to exercise and never expire, but they don't vote until exercised, and Alyeska can cap its ownership at 4.9%, 9.9%, or 19.9% of the shares. ATII and its sponsor, with the consent of BTIG (the bank that ran ATII's IPO), also waived the transfer restrictions on the 3M founder shares the sponsor hands Alyeska for free at close. Counting the founder share transfer, Alyeska's effective cost is $7.69/share, and the S-4 (the merger filing) says so directly. So the $100M still lands at close, but the fund providing it got more flexible terms the day before ATII holders had to decide whether to redeem.

@gnoble79 Oct 14 8 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats Oct 14 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@calvinblissett Oct 14 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@valuedontlie Forgive me I haven’t done the work I may soon, isn’t the whole point of $VITL is having a brand and being specialized to insulate it from cyclicality to see degree? I’m one of those people who pay up for pasture raised no matter what

@BlueDuckCap Oct 14 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: Discount Is Attractive, But Credit Has Not Stabilized; Hold

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending trades at a 32% NAV discount as non-accruals reach 2.9%, NII and NAV decline, and dividend coverage falls to…

MSDL $1.5B

Rubicon Associates Oct 14 1 click

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $88BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 13 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 14 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 14 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 12 clicks

Femasys: Launch Is Funded. If The Sales Force Delivers, Then The Company Is In Tall Cotton.

FEMY $14M

Daron Evans Oct 14

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B

Asian Century Stocks Oct 14 6 clicks

Rollins (ROL), Verisure (VSURE), and the cost of standing still (Part 2, Verisure)

Verisure’s 6.38 million monitored-alarm subscribers generate 90% recurring revenue, while its disclosed acquisition costs and 6%-8% churn…

ROL $15B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 13 23 clicks

SED Energy: The 40% Dividend. Signal or Noise?

SED Energy's proposed Ventura merger projects a 22% to 40% dividend yield, but idle tender barges, debt and repayments materially reduce…

SBDXF $498M

Cannibal Stocks Oct 13 7 clicks

BridgeBio: Maintaining 'Strong Buy' Additional Encaleret Data ADH1 And Three Expected FDA Reviews

BridgeBio Pharma reported Q2 revenue of $243.7 million and has three Priority Review NDAs, while $1 billion in convertible preferred…

BBIO $13B

Terry Chrisomalis Oct 13 2 clicks

SCEYF · long

Source Energy Services LTD

Source Energy Services is Western Canada’s dominant integrated frac-sand producer and logistics provider, supplied by three Wisconsin…

SCEYF $83M

Value Investors Club Jun 16 1 click

Trading Post August 11, 2026

Molina Healthcare was increased at $198 to a full position, with political-season benefits supporting the long-term thesis.

MOH $11B

Cassandra Unchained Aug 11 1 click

Sea Limited Earnings Update: A quick look

Sea Limited reported Q2 2026 revenue of $7.8 billion, up 48%, as Shopee, Monee and Garena lifted adjusted EBITDA to $917 million.

SE $57B

SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets Aug 11

The numbers don’t tell the full story

Nintendo’s sales fell 9.5% while operating profit rose 150%, aided by digital mix, a $300 million tariff refund and Switch 2 comparisons…

NTDOY $60B

Best Anchor Stocks Aug 11

Quick Value #326 - Shift4 Payments (FOUR)

Shift4 Payments trades at 6.9x EBITDA after a 50% five-year share decline, while leverage from acquisitions and slowing EPS growth weigh on…

FOUR $3B

Value Don't Lie Aug 11

Weekly Stock GEMs #8: August 11, 2026

KIYO Learning’s net-cash balance and potential first dividend lead a four-stock roundup spanning a Treasury-linked bank merger, horror…

MFBP $95M

Trade Ideas Flow Aug 11

Emergency Press Conference: FRMI & GRPN

Groupon reported accelerating organic revenue and record July traffic, while Fermi signed a $6.5 billion, 222 MW TensorWave data-center…

GRPN $674MFRMI $2.2B

Mispriced Assets Aug 11

$UWMC lost $600m hedging a deal they'd already lost

UWMC booked a roughly $600 million Q2 hedging loss tied to TWO months after the deal collapsed, contributing to an expensive capital raise.

UWMC $1.9B

Yet Another Value Blog Aug 11 11 clicks

Private Credit's Clock is Ticking w/ Glenn Schorr & Ken Worthington | The Real Eisman Playbook Ep 72

Glenn Schorr and Ken Worthington discuss risks in private-credit software loans, agentic AI at retail brokers, crypto use cases and bank…

LPLA $25B

Steve Eisman Aug 10 13 clicks

Figma 2Q'26: Near-Term Re-acceleration vs. Long-Term Durability

Figma raised its 2026 revenue growth guide to 39%, but a roughly 1% sequential 3Q outlook and unchanged $125-135 million operating-income…

FIG $12B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 10 10 clicks

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fred Liu on X

Kuppy on X

Fajasy on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

Calvin Blissett on X

BDC on X

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