Wednesday, October 14, 2026

October 2026 Random Ramblings

October 2026 market commentary covers SOLS’s cancelled merger, a hypothetical Starbucks-Chipotle deal, Russell 2000 weakness and AI premiums for Oura and home builders.

SOLS $9.7BCMG $39B

Yet Another Value Podcast Oct 14 86 clicks

Oct 14 SHEN $556M

Private Equity Prints Multibaggers With This Pattern. No One is Talking About It.

Phynvesting 18 clicks

Oct 14 COHR $52B

Coherent | Management Call

P Equity Research 18 clicks

From X

@LaughingH20Cap Oct 14 5 clicks

Laughing Water Capital on X

@bufetmastermind @secretlyaninja @mbamcnulty maybe i don't. I'd appreciate if you could explain. they had said 50% FCF margin on $1B in sales. $LQDA is still going to get to $1B in sales. Its just going to take longer. Tell me why 50% FCF margins are not in play. Bonus points if you can tell why they won't reduce costs

@HaydenCapital Oct 14 1 click

Fred Liu on X

Is Tiktok Shop slowing? J&T Express just reported SE Asia parcel volumes, and are flat for the year at ~31M per day for the last few qtrs. They're guiding to 50-55% full year growth, implying Q4 holiday season only ramps to 33-37M parcels. Evidence Shopee's VIP & logistics investments are working? $SE $1519.HK

@hkuppy Oct 14 1 click

Kuppy on X

I’m sure that $CRWV is money good on funding its gazillions of chip purchase orders, as long as someone funds $CRWV…🤭🤭 https://t.co/TOnS6iGurC

@gnoble79 Oct 14 8 clicks

George Noble on X

Keith, you are a total POS. You belong in jail for securities fraud. I own you. You laughed at me first shorting $OOEN at 8. You are such a pathetic, odious pile of garbage. So pathetic. The entire world is laughing at you. Thanks for playing. $OPEN @rabois @ericjackson @APompliano @

@BrokenMoats Oct 14 3 clicks

Broken Moats on X

Hottest trade in the past month.....retail stocks Seems odd with rates and oil and diesel moves over the same time frame. And these are not bounces from being oversold these are double digit moves in most cases to new highs while dpz struggled on their print this week, stocks like DKS collapsed around the time this trade started. Bifurcation in retail in recent weeks that seems to be favoring low quality. Something to watch for a reversal soon $KSS $FIGS $URBN $SHOP

@calvinblissett Oct 14 2 clicks

Calvin Blissett on X

@valuedontlie Forgive me I haven’t done the work I may soon, isn’t the whole point of $VITL is having a brand and being specialized to insulate it from cyclicality to see degree? I’m one of those people who pay up for pasture raised no matter what

@BlueDuckCap Oct 14 5 clicks

BDC on X

It's been 189 days since @evanspiegel had a confirmed sale. The longest sales void ever, per what we can discern from filings. He's in a blackout window now. If the sales do not resume post Q3 window opening then that would seem bullish. We would love an insider buy, too. Evan buys stock here we would think $SNAP is +10% on that day. At least. Not advice. Just pointing out the cadence of form 4's and lack of historical insider buying.

@finphysnerd Oct 14

Myles on X

Bizarre update at $HTT with the company facing a large tax liability on behalf of the CEO. I'm genuinely puzzled with how to perceive this. Chatgpt suggests that the explanation is reasonable, but the company paying taxes for the CEO feels like such an obvious red flag. The stock https://t.co/cl7C0ai5XB https://t.co/z7fcATOYXe

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending: Discount Is Attractive, But Credit Has Not Stabilized; Hold

Morgan Stanley Direct Lending trades at a 32% NAV discount as non-accruals reach 2.9%, NII and NAV decline, and dividend coverage falls to…

MSDL $1.5B

Rubicon Associates Oct 14 1 click

Research Roundup Vol. LVI

Howmet Aerospace is framed as a beneficiary of turbine and aircraft-engine demand, while J.B.

HWM $88BJBHT $22B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 14 13 clicks

Lennar: The Misstep Is Temporary, the Operating Machine Is Not

Lennar cut build times to 116 days and adopted an asset-light land model, while gross margin fell to 15.8% from 27.5% as land costs rose.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 14 clicks

Lennar, Part One: The Story

Lennar grew from a Miami builder into one of America’s two largest homebuilders, controlling land largely through options and land banks…

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 14 clicks

Lennar, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Lennar’s second audio program examines the homebuilder’s business for professional investors and housing analysts.

LEN $17B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 14 12 clicks

Insider activity September 2026

Asian insider buying rose 19% to US$2.4 billion across 930 September transactions, led by Grab CEO Anthony Tan’s US$30 million purchase…

GRAB $12B

Asian Century Stocks Oct 14 6 clicks

Rollins (ROL), Verisure (VSURE), and the cost of standing still (Part 2, Verisure)

Verisure’s 6.38 million monitored-alarm subscribers generate 90% recurring revenue, while its disclosed acquisition costs and 6%-8% churn…

ROL $15B

Best Anchor Stocks Oct 13 24 clicks

SED Energy: The 40% Dividend. Signal or Noise?

SED Energy's proposed Ventura merger projects a 22% to 40% dividend yield, but idle tender barges, debt and repayments materially reduce…

SBDXF $498M

Cannibal Stocks Oct 13 7 clicks

BridgeBio: Maintaining 'Strong Buy' Additional Encaleret Data ADH1 And Three Expected FDA Reviews

BridgeBio Pharma reported Q2 revenue of $243.7 million and has three Priority Review NDAs, while $1 billion in convertible preferred…

BBIO $13B

Terry Chrisomalis Oct 13 2 clicks

Monte Investments Market Brief Vol. CXXXI

Park Aerospace reported 27% revenue growth and 72% EPS growth, supported by composite materials for Airbus engines and PAC-3 rocket motors.

PKE $571M

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 13 4 clicks

YOU · short

Clear Secure INC

Clear Secure's Clear Plus subscription business is nearing maturity despite recent bookings strength, supporting a short thesis on YOU.

YOU $6.1B

Value Investors Club Jun 3

The Bottleneck Was Never the Finding

Tenable’s $27 valuation reflects fears that AI commoditizes vulnerability scanning, while the thesis says AI increases demand for…

TENB $4.2B

Mispriced Assets Jun 9

ADF Group Inc. ($DRX.TO) FINS Review

ADF Group’s Q1 FY2026 revenue rose 78% to $99.3 million and net income 37%, aided by the LAR acquisition despite steel and aluminum tariff…

ADFJF $335M

Wolf's Substack Jun 9 1 click

Peru & Colombia Election Results & Investment Outlook

Keiko Fujimori’s expected Peru victory and Abelardo’s win in Colombia reduce regulatory risk for AUNA, whose operations generate roughly…

AUNA $389M

Ian’s Insider Corner Jun 8

Flyover Stock: Tyler Technologies (TYL)

Tyler Technologies’ moat rests on something more durable than code, even as AI-driven fears have cut SaaS valuations.

TYL $14B

Flyover Stocks Jun 8

[VRSK] Verisk has standards

Verisk’s exit from healthcare, financial-services and energy data restored a pure-play insurance analytics model, but D.E.

VRSK $25B

scuttleblurb Jun 8 1 click

Brown & Brown

Brown & Brown compounded revenue 14.4% annually since 1998 through more than 650 acquisitions, capped by its nearly $10 billion Accession…

BRO $23B

Eagle Point Capital Jun 6

MSGS at a Glaring Discount so GO KNICKS GO!

MSGS, owner of the Knicks and Rangers, filed a Form 10 to explore a spinoff as comparable franchise sales support an $11 billion valuation.

MSGS $9.5B

Open Insights Jun 5

When the Ducks are Quacking

Ford’s 1956 IPO sold 10.2 million shares at $63 each after Goldman Sachs helped resolve the Ford Foundation’s voting-rights problem.

F $49B

Net Interest Jun 5

Lawrence Hamtil: The Farmer Mentality, Software's Cycle, and Investing with Irreplaceable Capital

Lawrence Hamtil discusses the farmer mentality, software’s cycle and investing with irreplaceable capital.

FERG $43B

Flyover Stocks Jun 5

Wednesday, October 14, 2026

Laughing Water Capital on X

Fred Liu on X

Kuppy on X

George Noble on X

Broken Moats on X

Calvin Blissett on X

BDC on X

Myles on X

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