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Monday, October 12, 2026

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Convequity on X

3D chips could create more room for specialist EDA startups. We are not convinced that more difficult chip design automatically translates into a large revenue windfall for $SNPS, $CDNS and Siemens. Fine-pitch stacking changes decisions that used to be made within one die. Put a circuit upstairs and its wires may get shorter, but its heat affects the circuit below. Placement, signal timing and power delivery have to be optimized together across the stack. That creates a reason for $AVGO and $NVDA to build custom tools around their architectures. Broadcom already describes a proprietary design flow built on industry-standard tools. Nvidia publishes its own research on assigning connections across tiers in 3D chips. Our inference is that the chip designers will keep some of the most differentiating optimization work in-house. A startup that solves a costly gap in cross-die planning or optimization could also win business without replacing an entire EDA suite. The incumbents still supply implementation, verification and manufacturing sign-off tools, and they are developing 3D capabilities themselves. Internal tooling is evidence that customers need more than the standard flow; it does not establish that incumbent spending falls. We see a more interesting startup opportunity where a tool can shorten repeated design iterations or improve the resulting chip enough to earn a separate budget. That is the part of the 3D transition we would investigate before assuming the largest EDA vendors capture most of the upside.zz
@convequity

Convequity on X

The Information reports that Anthropic has an unannounced multiyear cloud contract with $IREN. Our view is that it is most likely a contract IREN has already announced and already counts. On 27 August, in its FY26 results, IREN said it had signed a new multiyear AI cloud contract with an unnamed "leading frontier AI lab". In the same release it put contracted annualised run-rate revenue (ARR) for its 2026 capacity at $4bn, against $1bn of ARR operating on 26 August, and said its 2026 capacity was largely sold out. The Information gives no size or term, and neither IREN nor Anthropic has confirmed the deal. If Anthropic is the August lab, the report names a customer but adds nothing to the $4bn. It would only be new revenue if IREN raised that figure, and IREN has not said it will.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

Four of BWX Technologies’ $BWXT six top executives took their current roles in 2025, but all four were promoted from inside the company. $BWXT’s 2030 plan depends most on the executives below: → Rex Geveden (President and CEO): CEO since 2017 after joining as COO in 2015. Previously an EVP at Teledyne Technologies $TDY and 17 years at NASA, where he was COO. → Mike Fitzgerald (CFO): CFO since July 2025, interim from May 2025. Joined in 2022 as chief accounting officer; previously at MorganFranklin Consulting and Deloitte. → Joe Miller (President, Government Operations): Since June 2025. Served on the submarine USS Norfolk, joined $BWXT in 2011 as an engineer, and ran Advanced Technologies before taking over the segment. → John MacQuarrie (President, Commercial Operations): More than 28 years at $BWXT, and more than 30 in the nuclear industry. → Kevin McCoy (Chief Nuclear Officer): Moved from Government Operations president in June 2025 to help speed up Columbia- and Virginia-class production. Retired vice admiral and former commander of Naval Sea Systems Command. → Kate Kelly (President, Advanced Technologies): Has run Advanced Technologies, home to Pele, BANR, and TRISO (its microreactor and fuel programs), since June 2025, after joining $BWXT in 2012. Several senior roles turned over in 2025 and 2026: → CFO: Robb LeMasters stepped down in May 2025 and stayed on as a special adviser; Fitzgerald replaced him. → General counsel: Ronald Whitford stepped down on November 4, 2025, and Toby Smith, previously corporate secretary at elevator maker Otis Worldwide $OTIS, replaced him. The 8-K says the exit wasn’t tied to “any legal issue or any disagreement.” → Strategy: Rik Geiersbach, previously head of strategy and corporate development for the defense unit of Boeing $BA, joined as chief strategy officer in September 2025. → Nuclear Operations Group: Retired Rear Admiral Howard Markle now runs the naval reactor plants in place of Gary Camper, with no release announcing the change. $BWXT’s board includes Adm. John Richardson, the former Chief of Naval Operations and former director of Naval Reactors.
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

85.5% of the BWX Technologies $BWXT stock insiders have sold in the open market since January 2025 came from CEO Rex Geveden. All 14 open-market transactions since then were sales, totaling 129,322 shares and $20.1M. Geveden accounts for 110,625 of the shares and $17.2M, in two phases: 1) Discretionary sales: 45,625 shares at $107.40 on February 26, 2025, and 25,000 at $179.00 on August 6, 2025, both two days after an earnings release and neither under a 10b5-1 plan (a pre-set trading plan). 2) Plan sales: On August 11, 2025, five days after the second sale, he adopted a 10b5-1 plan to sell up to 40,000 shares through August 14, 2026. He sold 10,000 shares/quarter under the plan, at $197.90, $203.26, $204.81, and $172.50, using up all 40,000. He still holds 192,491 shares directly ($28.0M at $145.70). The last two 10-Qs show no new plans adopted in H1 2026, and the Q3 10-Q, due with results on November 2, will show whether he adopted another plan after the first expired. The other eight sales, by seven executives and directors, totaled 18,697 shares and $2.9M. Most of this selling carries little signal. The other insiders’ $2.9M is small, and Geveden’s 40,000 plan shares were scheduled in August 2025. His two discretionary sales matter more. They totaled 70,625 shares ($9.4M) outside any plan, and including the plan sales, he’s sold about a third of his shares since February 2025. But both came right after $BWXT reported earnings, not ahead of them, at $107.40 and $179.00, well below the $238.42 peak. So the selling isn’t a warning sign, but with no insider buying during the drop, insiders aren’t signaling a bottom.

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You Understand Now, Why You Came This Way

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/09/2026)

Paramount Skydance’s debt-heavy Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition, streaming bundle pricing and alcohol-industry diversification anchor…

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TSOH Investment Research

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