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Tuesday, October 6, 2026

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New Position (ONON): Game is On

On Holding (ONON) is gaining sportswear share, expanding store space and launching soccer with Kylian Mbappé as investors debate U.S. consumer weakness and China growth.

ONON $11B
Aurelion Research 3 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital

Deep Sail Capital on X

Good article about how $CRDO is being together the multiple layers of connectivity: “The operational angle is equally important. At 1.6T, the issue is not simply moving twice the data of an 800G port. Large AI fabrics can contain enormous numbers of optical links, making intermittent faults and link flaps increasingly consequential to cluster availability and troubleshooting. Credo is therefore positioning telemetry and diagnostics as part of the optical link architecture itself rather than treating observability as a separate management layer.” Having a full suite of connectivity options will give them a big advantage in 1.6T. https://t.co/K7TtgjFadI
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$CHRW shareholders not buying. Incredible amount of uncertainty in brokerage and how that will look in a few years from litigation impacts on costs (insurance and liability) and AI on margins/take rates. It is a phenomenal deal for $QXO shareholders as they get to exit at cyclical high pricing into incredible uncertainty. (why CHRW down) Also in your multiple assessment above, you need to consider a whole bunch more factors than putting a multiple on a several year out synergy target number (1 chew trading under 20x forward 27' numbers), Ch share count will increase 16%+ (for accretion/dilution scenerios), debt costs will significantly increase (that is stripped out of there) as well as all the severance and integration costs they will incur in the next few years. This deal is quite risky in my opinion. I Also as someone in your shoes knows covering the industry for years, the history of Brokerage acquisitions paying off is quite poor (just see QXO's Coyote acquisition a few years ago)
@StableBread

Fajasy on X

The CEO of Nubeva Technologies $NBVAF (TSXV: $NBVA) owns 25.4% of the shares, and a 12% holder keeps buying more. Investing in Nubeva largely means trusting Randy Chou. He’s been CEO since the 2018 listing and sits on the board. Per the company’s site, he built SSL (web encryption) security at Alteon WebSystems, which Nortel bought for $7.8B in 2000. He then joined the founding team at Aruba Networks, a Wi-Fi company started in 2002 that HP $HPQ bought for $3.0B in 2015. In 2008, he co-founded Panzura, a cloud storage company that private equity firm Profile Capital Management bought in May 2020 for $225M, per Nubeva’s July 2023 investor deck. Granted, Panzura replaced him as CEO with Patrick Harr in May 2016, a month after Nubeva was incorporated, and the sale came four years later under Harr. Regardless, every company Chou helped build before Nubeva ended in a sale, and a partnership or sale is Nubeva’s own fallback if AI doesn’t fix its costs. Canadian insiders report their trades on SEDI, and Nubeva’s file since January 2024 has one active buyer. Clayton Davis, an Edmonton-based individual investor, crossed 10% on September 8, 2025 with 7,038,268 shares (10.03%), per the Form 62-103F1 he filed a year later, on September 10, 2026 (the disclosure Canada requires from anyone who crosses 10%). He then made 96 open-market purchases on 46 trading days through September 4, 2026, buying 1,755,797 shares for ~CAD$306K at CAD$0.09-0.26. Net of four small sales totaling 134,500 shares, he now holds 8,659,565 shares (12.34%). Davis’s latest purchase, on September 4, came a week after Nubeva filed its FY2026 results. In other words, he kept buying after seeing the full-year numbers. Chou hasn’t bought or sold in the open market over the same period, and Nubeva’s annual meeting filings list the same 17,797,741 shares for him in 2024, 2025, and 2026. In April 2024, Chou moved 3,630,000 of those shares into a donor-advised fund he still controls, and in a February 26, 2026 interview on Nubeva’s YouTube channel, he said he’d have to pre-announce any sale by the fund.

Investor Letters

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Deep Dive: Intuit ($INTU)

Intuit’s $21.4 billion software franchise faces AI-driven pricing pressure in tax and accounting, even as QuickBooks and TurboTax retain…

INTU $79B
Rebound Capital 4 clicks

Canterra Minerals: Research Note

Canterra Minerals increased Lundberg indicated tonnage 55% to 26.1Mt, with 226.2Kt of contained copper equivalent, supporting a Buchans…

EQX $13B
Atrium Research - Equity Research

Kenorland Minerals: Research Flash

Franco-Nevada bought 10.0 million Kenorland shares, a 12.4% stake, for C$22.2 million in a secondary transaction that issued no new shares.

FNV $46B
Atrium Research - Equity Research 1 click
IBIT · long

Ishares Bitcoin Trust Etf

IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) is presented as a high-conviction Bitcoin position with attractive risk-reward.

IBIT $173B
Value Investors Club 2 clicks

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $120B
Invariant 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B
Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

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