Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Monday, October 5, 2026

Back to today

From X

@ACapitalLP

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

Investor Letters

All letters

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo…

BTI $121B
Invariant 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B
Irrational Analysis 3 clicks
ENS · short

Enersys

EnerSys faces a short thesis as data-center and warehouse vehicle customers shift from lead-acid batteries to lithium-ion.

ENS $6.4B
Value Investors Club

The Last Bidder

Aquarian won Brighthouse Financial despite a lower bid after higher offers failed to secure reinsurance for its legacy liabilities and thin…

BHF $2.8B
Mispriced Assets

Altria: Gradient

Altria's Q2 2026 smokeables earnings rose 2.4% as cigarette volume declines eased, while oral tobacco revenue fell 5.2% and volumes fell…

MO $119B
Invariant

Netflix

Netflix's 46% decline leaves it above a 4% forward free-cash-flow yield, as subscription pricing and a $3 billion advertising business…

NFLX $511B
Behind the Balance Sheet 1 click

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

128 publications

Newsletters 106

YouTube 4

Blogs 17

Seeking Alpha 46 of 222

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

84 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

189 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.