Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $58B

Bison Insights Oct 5 2 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 9 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 2 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$MELI - Long term vision. https://t.co/EXtoxpWBg3

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@AtlasShrug1 The JV with Sharon AI. Look into that. The PPA gives away 5% equity for the right for $NUAI to buy power from Vista.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 3 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

Because they are bullshiting everyone. $NUAI https://t.co/FMGotqQuEr

@RagingVentures Oct 5 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@TarekAntaki I bought $CHTR stock today as well, Godspeed!

@ACapitalLP Oct 5

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@BitcoinAIGuy @optionology What assets does $NUAI actually own? A few million of real estate in Texas? Why is everyone so bullish on a company that was run / pivoted into “power shells” by a shady oil field guy like E Will Gray II?

@Fierce__beast Oct 5

Fierce_beast on X

@paulcerro $evlv seems like a pretty difficult biz

@stockgutter Oct 5

SG on X

@MattJMcClintock you don't need to squint to see the underperformance of $RH vs the rest of sector over the past month or ytd 😉 https://t.co/lyt7NOg23h

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $25BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $74BINTR $3.2B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 3 clicks

Nyxoah: Label Expansion Set To Unlock A Monopoly In A Billion Dollar Market.

Nyxoah's Genio implant could reach CCC patients after an FDA label expansion, targeting 30% of the obstructive sleep apnea device market by…

NYXH $135M

Stephen Tobin Oct 5 3 clicks

OMSE 2026-10-05

The Monday Morning Briefing: AI Drives Everything, Yet ROI on Massive Capex Remains Uncertain

Latticework’s briefing questions AI capex returns while featuring Close Brothers, Green Landscaping and OMS Energy Technologies.

OMSE $183M

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 5 2 clicks

Geely: Strategic NIO Battery Deal Is A Win

Geely’s ZEEKR nearly doubled first-half 2026 deliveries to 178,000, while Geely bought 30% of NIO’s battery-swapping unit to reduce…

GELYF $20BNIO $8.6B

The Asian Investor Oct 4 5 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.8B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

EVI Industries. Margin inflection or fake out?

EVI Industries says its ERP and service-platform build is largely complete, testing whether 10.8% revenue growth can finally outpace…

EVI $248M

Kairos Research Oct 2 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $18BMRP $3.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

SPSC · long

Sps Commerce INC

SPS Commerce, SPSC, runs a network software platform that lets retailers, suppliers and 3PLs exchange supply-chain and trading information.

SPSC $2.9B

Value Investors Club Jun 8

Practical Semiconductor Optical Amplifiers (SOA)

Semiconductor optical amplifiers offer compact, low-cost gain for LiDAR, long-haul links and ultra-high-power co-packaged optics, trading…

LITE $100BAEVA $946M

Irrational Analysis Jul 18

Clear the DEC?

Diversified Energy (DEC) has paid $21.84 per share in dividends since June 2017 and trades at $13.35 amid a bullish U.S.

DEC $979M

The Oak Bloke Jul 18 3 clicks

Nothing Beats a Jet2....investment?

Jet2’s £4.5bn A321neo fleet renewal will constrain free cash flow through 2032, despite strong package-holiday growth, cash reserves and…

RYAAY $27B

Brevarthan Research Jul 16

[scuttleslops] CDNS, SNPS, TREX, WISE, Class I Rails, China

Synopsys and Cadence retain EDA pricing power through entrenched design flows, foundry relationships and high switching costs; AI-driven…

SNPS $96B

scuttleblurb Jul 16 2 clicks

Groupon Built a Brain

Groupon is building an AI “Brain” to personalize its app for each user, turning its turnaround plan into a product initiative.

GRPN $762M

Mispriced Assets Jul 16

Thoughts on PayPal Buyout Offer

PayPal faces a $60.50-per-share buyout offer from Stripe and Advent, with a rejection or counteroffer above $80 viewed as more likely.

PYPL $47B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Jul 15

Rebound Watchlist: July 2026

Rebound Capital's July 2026 watchlist puts AeroVironment and Coinbase under review after UnitedHealth rose more than 70% from its low.

AVAV $7BCOIN $48B

Rebound Capital Jul 15

Airbnb’s Cost of Market Creation and Regulatory Survival

Airbnb spent 1.1% of 2025 GBV on field operations and policy as regulatory costs persisted; New York’s short-term-rental crackdown cut…

ABNB $99B

MBI Deep Dives Jul 15 3 clicks

$CBZ: stop the buybacks and restart the M&A flywheel? | Reference Equity

CBIZ activist Ryan Bunn urges ending buybacks, issuing equity and resuming bolt-on acquisitions to delever after the $2.3 billion Marcum…

CBZ $3B

Yet Another Value Podcast Jul 14 2 clicks

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