Monday, October 5, 2026

Selling Cenovus: Up 78% in 10 Months

Cenovus Energy, up 78% in 10 months, is sold after agreeing to buy Athabasca Oil for $5.7 billion at a rich valuation.

CVE $61B

Bison Insights Oct 5 3 clicks

Oct 5 GFL $15B

The Final Countdown: An Update on GFL’s Sale

310 Value’s Newsletter

Oct 5 CRWV $43B

The Thin Margin of Safety in Selling Compute

MBI Deep Dives 10 clicks

From X

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 2 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

$MELI - Long term vision. https://t.co/EXtoxpWBg3

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@AtlasShrug1 The JV with Sharon AI. Look into that. The PPA gives away 5% equity for the right for $NUAI to buy power from Vista.

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 3 clicks

Deep Sail Capital on X

Because they are bullshiting everyone. $NUAI https://t.co/FMGotqQuEr

@RagingVentures Oct 5 1 click

Raging Capital Ventures on X

@TarekAntaki I bought $CHTR stock today as well, Godspeed!

@ACapitalLP Oct 5

A Capital on X

𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗜𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲. It’s funny: most people think the proliferation of information has made finding dislocations harder. I’d argue the opposite. When information was scarce, speed was the edge. Today the problem is information overload. Social media, AI, headlines, experts, hot takes. Just like different news organizations (CNN, Fox, MSNOW) can frame the same political candidate through completely different lenses, markets create narratives that can overwhelm the underlying facts. Every trade is a spread between perception and truth. Merger arb just makes that spread explicit because you have a relatively fixed endpoint (the deal consideration). Regular-way equities are harder because “truth” is a moving target. But you don’t need to know whether $TLN is worth $350, $370 or $390 to recognize when Josh Shapiro and data-center pushback have distorted perception enough to send it to $270. You don’t need to perfectly value every business line of $OWL to recognize when a Bloomberg story has caused the market to paint the entire business with the private-credit apocalypse brush. And it works both ways: $GLND wasn’t suddenly a critical-minerals bonanza because of a Trump headline. Sometimes the narrative creates the overvaluation. Having the best model or talking to the most experts helps you estimate truth. But truth without an understanding of perception isn’t a trade. You can be a little wrong on intrinsic value and still make a lot of money if you correctly identify that the market’s narrative has overshot reality. The edge today isn’t knowing whether something is worth exactly $37 or $39. It’s understanding why it’s trading at $27 in the first place, whether that perception is wrong, and what makes the gap close…

@DeepSailCapital Oct 5 1 click

Deep Sail Capital on X

@BitcoinAIGuy @optionology What assets does $NUAI actually own? A few million of real estate in Texas? Why is everyone so bullish on a company that was run / pivoted into “power shells” by a shady oil field guy like E Will Gray II?

@Fierce__beast Oct 5

Fierce_beast on X

@paulcerro $evlv seems like a pretty difficult biz

@stockgutter Oct 5

SG on X

@MattJMcClintock you don't need to squint to see the underperformance of $RH vs the rest of sector over the past month or ytd 😉 https://t.co/lyt7NOg23h

Portfolio Update September 2026

Portfolio added Otis Worldwide in the mid-$60s, increased Pool, Copart and Floor & Decor, and sold Berkshire Hathaway.

OTIS $26BCPRT $25B

D Invests Oct 5 1 click

Ciena, A Former Telecom Bust, Is Now In The Early Stages Of A Bona Fide Mega Boom

Ciena’s optical networking equipment sales to stronger telecom customers underpin a 2027 long thesis, unlike its 2000-era boom.

CIEN $57B

Marc Gerstein Oct 5 2 clicks

Brazil could be the Q4 Macro Play – My stock ideas: $NU, $INTR, $PICS and maybe $STNE, $PAGS, $DLO and $MELI

Brazilian fintechs NU, INTR and PICS stand to benefit from a Bolsonaro-led runoff surprise that lowers fiscal risk premiums, rates and the…

NU $75BINTR $3.3B

Substack von Philipp Oct 5 5 clicks

Alliance Resource Partners: A ~10% Yield Backed By Contracted Coal And Growing Royalties

Alliance Resource Partners has 2026 coal sales fully contracted and is expanding oil and gas royalties through AllDale, supporting its 9.8%…

ARLP $3.2B

Timur Mekhantev Oct 5 4 clicks

Practical Parametric Yield

Cerebras’s WSE-3 faces parametric-yield constraints that could restrict supply, making power and clock-speed tradeoffs central to its next…

CBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 4 3 clicks

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Group 1 paid $1 billion of goodwill for Hennessy’s 10 dealerships, a record $100 million per store, financed largely with $1.25 billion of…

GPI $2.7B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 4 4 clicks

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $17BMRP $3.7B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 3 clicks

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

IQV · long

Iqvia Holdings INC

IQVIA runs drug trials and gets paid regardless of whether drugs pass, while trading at a COVID-low multiple with potential AI benefits.

IQV $43B

Value Investors Club May 20 1 click

Some Thoughts on Roaring Kitty

Roaring Kitty’s GameStop resurgence revisits GME shareholder activism and the meme-stock trading episode, with references to Bed Bath &…

GME $14B

Rod’s Ruminations May 21

(I)nbound (M)igrants (X)panding (I)nternational Remittances

International Money Express trades at roughly 5x forward EV/EBITDA despite growth, modest leverage and excess cash available for…

IMXI $327M

Rod’s Ruminations May 11

Summary of Q4 Restaurant Conference Calls

Restaurant operators reported improving traffic, accelerating unit growth and higher advertising spend, while wage inflation ran 4-5% and…

EAT $8B

Investing 501 Mar 14

A Mexican Blue Chip Bargain

Grupo Herdez, a MXN 15.2 billion Mexican food company, pairs dominant grocery brands with McCormick, Barilla and Hormel joint ventures.

GUZOF $977M

Exploring with Alluvial Capital Mar 7

One Hour Analysis: Driven Brands Holdings ($DRVN), Road Kill or Road to Redemption?

Driven Brands’ 5,000-location auto-service network pairs strong Maintenance results with Car Wash and collision-unit fixes after DRVN fell…

DRVN $1.9B

Investing 501 Feb 25

Highlights from Darden Restaurants' Q2 '23 Conference Call

Darden Restaurants posted 2.8% same-store sales growth as Olive Garden and LongHorn outperformed a softer casual-dining market, while…

DRI $23B

Investing 501 Dec 17

Sarepta Risk and the FDA

Sarepta’s Exondys 51 approval despite a 12-patient trial frames FDA regulatory risk and a call to remove Commissioner Robert Califf.

SRPT $1.9B

John Hempton's Newsletter Oct 31 1 click

A Value Trap, an Ancient Stock Pitch, a Glimpse Into The Past

Four Corners’ insider-backed asset sale cut shareholder proceeds to roughly 80% of its prior share price. A 2016 Wilh.

FCPT $2.7B

Exploring with Alluvial Capital Sep 27

Does anyone remember when Alnylam went up 50 percent in a day on a phase three result

Alnylam’s 2022 50% phase-three gain faces FDA advisory-panel scrutiny over its amyloidosis drug’s label extension.

ALNY $31B

John Hempton's Newsletter Sep 12

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