Sunday, October 4, 2026

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo 1.0’s failure.

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Oct 4 CBRS $33B

Practical Parametric Yield

Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

Oct 4 GPI $2.7B

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

From X

@John_Hempton Oct 4 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

@leevalueroach Oct 4 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

@BarbarianCap Oct 4 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

@Adam_Wyden Oct 4 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL

@partners_road Oct 4 3 clicks

RiverRoadPartners on X

You can trade many things on the Chicago Merc: soyabeans, gold, lean hogs, crude & rates. Now, CME Group plans to introduce a new commodity to the list: compute. CME calls it “the new currency for the AI economy.” Be careful what you wish for (re: price discovery outside $NVDA).

@convequity Oct 4 1 click

Convequity on X

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) — Week of 2 October 2026 Our weekly framework tracks valuations, returns, capex, financing risk and infrastructure capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds and model labs. Friday 2 Oct 2026 close (US ET): - Price drove the move: EV rose about $44B to about $14,114B. Invested capital (IC) was unchanged at $2,338B. - EV/IC: 6.04x, up 0.02x from 6.02x on 25 Sep. - All-in EV/IC: 6.76x. 1. Returns. Our paired, annualized forward ROIC (which is not trailing accounting ROIC) for Q2 2026 is 30.0%, against an AI WACC of 9.8%: 3.07x ROIC/WACC and a spread of +20.3 percentage points. 2. Capex. Latest-quarter cash capex is $228.7B. 3. Debt. Borrowings are $595B. All-in exposure is $3,624B, or 6.10x borrowings, adding purchase obligations, construction commitments and uncommenced leases on top of borrowings and leases. 4. Gigawatts. Current capacity is 45.7 GW, with 153.4 GW planned. $MSFT versus $GOOGL: MSFT’s all-in exposure is about 17x borrowings, and it is renting more: external capacity is about 12% now and 21% of planned capacity. GOOGL’s all-in exposure is 10.2x borrowings, while its external capacity share remains small at about 4% now. We see a price-led rise in valuation, with modeled forward returns still well above the cost of capital. Future spending commitments are much larger than borrowings alone suggest, and the reliance on rented capacity differs across companies.

@ACapitalLP Oct 4 1 click

A Capital on X

The Muse point is exactly why I think perception is increasingly the whole game. If $GOOGL acquired Muse competitor Instinct tomorrow, does $META’s implied multiple compress before a single earnings estimate changes? Probably. The market is repricing perceived competitive advantage long before anyone can quantify the actual economics.

@DevinLaSarre Oct 4 2 clicks

Devin LaSarre on X

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Harvest $BTI $PM $MO $IMBBY $HAYPP $STG https://t.co/IjOEe4izVz

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40 Best Stock Pitches (28th-4th October) 🟢

Old Market Capital, a delisted holding company owning a rural fiber network, trades below comparable network valuations after institutional…

OMCC $27M

Capital Employed Oct 4 7 clicks

💥Leslies Term Lenders Toss a Life Preserver💥

Leslie’s and nine affiliates filed Chapter 11 in Texas on September 30, 2026, after 18 months of deteriorating performance.

LESL $1.6M

PETITION Oct 4 3 clicks

🤿New Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Filing - Leslie’s Inc.🤿

Leslie’s, the pool-supplies retailer, filed Chapter 11 after deteriorating operations, pricing and inventory missteps, and a burdensome…

LESL $1.6M

PETITION Oct 4 3 clicks

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

META $1.9TMS $285B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Walmart: Fiscal 2028 Consensus Leaves No Room For Diesel Or Rollbacks

Walmart's FY28 consensus requires 15–18% operating-income growth above plan despite diesel costs, price investments and a non-recurring…

WMT $910B

Sameer Shahzad Oct 3 2 clicks

EVI Industries. Margin inflection or fake out?

EVI Industries says its ERP and service-platform build is largely complete, testing whether 10.8% revenue growth can finally outpace…

EVI $238M

Kairos Research Oct 2 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $17BMRP $3.7B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/02/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Meta’s AI agent ambitions, Netflix’s TV gaming strategy and Arc’teryx’s rise from $500 million to more than $2…

META $1.9TNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 2 4 clicks

Single Stock Spotlight #16: Huckleberry.AI (HUCK)

Huckleberry.AI trades near $3.30 against $221 million of cash and $900 million-plus of NOLs after selling its operating business, creating…

HUCK $147M

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Oct 2 5 clicks

PRGLY · long

Puregold Price Club INC

PureGold Price Club, the Philippines’ largest food retailer, operates hypermarkets, supermarkets, minimarts and S&R membership warehouses.

PRGLY $1.8B

Value Investors Club May 20 1 click

The Solvency Floor: Why I Served a "Revlon Notice" to the Board of WM Technology, Inc. / Weedmaps (MAPS)

WM Technology shareholder Rod Alzmann urges Weedmaps’ board to pursue a strategic proposal, including a $1.60 to $1.80 Dutch auction,…

MAPS $49M

Rod’s Ruminations Feb 10

Fast-Growing Software Company, 9x FCF, Buying Back Shares

NamSys (CTZ.V) trades at 9x free cash flow, buys back shares and grows cash-management software revenue, led by 52% growth in its…

NMYSF $22M

Easy Value Feb 10

After Trade Review, and Earnings Mention Market Thoughts

SNAP Family Center was omitted from Snap’s earnings call, validating a 50-cent Kalshi NO contract and informing a machine-learning model…

SNAP $10B

First Strike Research Feb 10

XPEL's Manufacturing Build-Out

XPEL plans to spend $75 million to $150 million on manufacturing, targeting 52-54% gross margins and high-20s EBIT margins by 2028.

XPEL $1.2B

Hidden Gems Investing Feb 10

Ferrari Exploratory Report

Ferrari sells about 13,000 vehicles annually, generating €7 billion of revenue and 28% operating margins; its shares trade at 32 times…

RACE $70B

Speedwell Memos Feb 10 1 click

Carvana, DriveTime, Hindenburg and Gotham City

Carvana’s DriveTime disclosures do not prove loan-loss shifting, but related-party dealings and gains on loan sales remain central concerns.

CVNA $43B

Brevarthan Research Feb 9

FDA vs. HIMS: Why the Oral “Wegovy Copy” Crackdown Changes the GLP-1 Game

FDA’s crackdown on HIMS’s $49 compounded oral Wegovy copy reshapes GLP-1 competition after Novo Nordisk forecast 2026 sales and profit…

NVO $168BHIMS $6.6B

Modern Value Investing Feb 8

Evolution: 4Q25 Business Update

Evolution's fourth-quarter revenue fell 4% as Asia cyber disruption and European channelization outweighed U.S.

EVVTY $15B

Speedwell Memos Feb 6 1 click

Adobe Inc (ADBE): slowly, then all at once

Adobe’s sub-20x forward GAAP P/E reflects AI disruption fears, with the investment case hinging on whether Digital Media’s creative…

ADBE $98B

Bristlemoon Capital Feb 6

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