Sunday, October 4, 2026

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo 1.0’s failure.

BTI $121B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Oct 4 CBRS $39B

Practical Parametric Yield

Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

Oct 4 GPI $2.7B

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

From X

@John_Hempton Oct 4 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

@leevalueroach Oct 4 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

@BarbarianCap Oct 4 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

@Adam_Wyden Oct 4 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL

@partners_road Oct 4 3 clicks

RiverRoadPartners on X

You can trade many things on the Chicago Merc: soyabeans, gold, lean hogs, crude & rates. Now, CME Group plans to introduce a new commodity to the list: compute. CME calls it “the new currency for the AI economy.” Be careful what you wish for (re: price discovery outside $NVDA).

@convequity Oct 4 1 click

Convequity on X

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) — Week of 2 October 2026 Our weekly framework tracks valuations, returns, capex, financing risk and infrastructure capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds and model labs. Friday 2 Oct 2026 close (US ET): - Price drove the move: EV rose about $44B to about $14,114B. Invested capital (IC) was unchanged at $2,338B. - EV/IC: 6.04x, up 0.02x from 6.02x on 25 Sep. - All-in EV/IC: 6.76x. 1. Returns. Our paired, annualized forward ROIC (which is not trailing accounting ROIC) for Q2 2026 is 30.0%, against an AI WACC of 9.8%: 3.07x ROIC/WACC and a spread of +20.3 percentage points. 2. Capex. Latest-quarter cash capex is $228.7B. 3. Debt. Borrowings are $595B. All-in exposure is $3,624B, or 6.10x borrowings, adding purchase obligations, construction commitments and uncommenced leases on top of borrowings and leases. 4. Gigawatts. Current capacity is 45.7 GW, with 153.4 GW planned. $MSFT versus $GOOGL: MSFT’s all-in exposure is about 17x borrowings, and it is renting more: external capacity is about 12% now and 21% of planned capacity. GOOGL’s all-in exposure is 10.2x borrowings, while its external capacity share remains small at about 4% now. We see a price-led rise in valuation, with modeled forward returns still well above the cost of capital. Future spending commitments are much larger than borrowings alone suggest, and the reliance on rented capacity differs across companies.

@ACapitalLP Oct 4 1 click

A Capital on X

The Muse point is exactly why I think perception is increasingly the whole game. If $GOOGL acquired Muse competitor Instinct tomorrow, does $META’s implied multiple compress before a single earnings estimate changes? Probably. The market is repricing perceived competitive advantage long before anyone can quantify the actual economics.

@DevinLaSarre Oct 4 2 clicks

Devin LaSarre on X

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Harvest $BTI $PM $MO $IMBBY $HAYPP $STG https://t.co/IjOEe4izVz

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

META $1.9TMS $294B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Walmart: Fiscal 2028 Consensus Leaves No Room For Diesel Or Rollbacks

Walmart's FY28 consensus requires 15–18% operating-income growth above plan despite diesel costs, price investments and a non-recurring…

WMT $910B

Sameer Shahzad Oct 3 2 clicks

EVI Industries. Margin inflection or fake out?

EVI Industries says its ERP and service-platform build is largely complete, testing whether 10.8% revenue growth can finally outpace…

EVI $238M

Kairos Research Oct 2 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $17BMRP $3.7B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/02/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Meta’s AI agent ambitions, Netflix’s TV gaming strategy and Arc’teryx’s rise from $500 million to more than $2…

META $1.9TNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 2 4 clicks

Single Stock Spotlight #16: Huckleberry.AI (HUCK)

Huckleberry.AI trades near $3.30 against $221 million of cash and $900 million-plus of NOLs after selling its operating business, creating…

HUCK $147M

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Oct 2 5 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

[scuttleslops] Cloudflare wants bots to pay; OpenAI’s ad ambitions; Memory chip competition; Muse is a proactive assistant; the Wintel of cars and robots; Atlassian as a coordinating layer

Cloudflare is building HTTP 402 payments for AI agents, using its web network to let publishers charge bots for content access.

NET $125B

scuttleblurb Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $52B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

EQPT · long

Equipmentshare.com INC

EquipmentShare.com, EQPT, is presented as a long idea and potential multibagger following its recent IPO, with a setup compared to Carvana.

EQPT $3.8B

Value Investors Club May 26

A non-consensus thesis: the forthcoming demise of Bristol Myers Squibb.

Bristol Myers Squibb’s bear case centers on patent-cliff revenue losses, debt, and failed drug investment after $28.3 billion of 2019–23…

BMY $116B

John Hempton's Newsletter May 26 7 clicks

Adobe Deep Dive

Adobe trades at 14x earnings after a 65% decline, with AI, Canva and Figma threatening subscriptions, customer acquisition and…

ADBE $93B

Speedwell Memos May 26 2 clicks

Seaport Entertainment (SEG): Four Catalysts Begin in August 2026

Seaport Entertainment targets positive property-level EBITDA as announced leases and programming add $31 million, while an August 2026…

SEG $286M

Hidden Gems Investing May 26

The $130M Company That Rules What Others Refuse To Touch...(MRDN)

Meridian Holdings (MRDN) operates online betting and casino platforms in 25 countries, arguing its long-standing licenses create a…

MRDN $143M

Phynvesting May 25

NVIDIA: The AI Factory Is Still Undervalued

NVIDIA reported $81.6 billion revenue, $75 billion data-center sales and $49 billion free cash flow, then weighs custom chips, hyperscalers…

NVDA $5.5T

Modern Value Investing May 25

TIC Solutions Update: New performance framework and a path to $26+ per share.

TIC targets $3 billion of 2029 revenue, 18% adjusted EBITDA margin and 85% free cash flow conversion, requiring roughly $400 million of…

TIC $1.9B

Kairos Research May 22

The Chains Buffett Forged

Warren Buffett's discipline built Berkshire's 22.2% book-value compounding but excluded high-growth winners such as Amazon, Netflix, Google…

BRK.A $1.1T

Bearstone May 20

Nvidia should buyback stock

Nvidia enters earnings with a case for stock buybacks.

NVDA $5.5T

Fabricated Knowledge May 19

Vidrala

Vidrala has grown from a Spanish glass-container maker into a multi-country packaging platform with expanding Latin American exposure.

VDRFF $3.5B

smallvalue. May 19 6 clicks

John_Hempton on X

Lee Roach on X

Barbarian Capital on X

Adam D. Wyden on X

RiverRoadPartners on X

Convequity on X

A Capital on X

Devin LaSarre on X

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