Sunday, October 4, 2026

British American Tobacco: Harvest

British American Tobacco’s U.S. reset revives combustibles and rebuilds its nicotine-pouch portfolio after legacy-brand writedowns and Velo 1.0’s failure.

BTI $120B

Invariant Oct 4 5 clicks

Oct 4 CBRS $39B

Practical Parametric Yield

Irrational Analysis 3 clicks

Oct 4 GPI $2.8B

Did Group 1 Overpay for Hennessy? The Seller’s Own Banker Says It Was a Record.

Cannibal Stocks 4 clicks

From X

@John_Hempton Oct 4 2 clicks

John_Hempton on X

@DavidWeinetayg @TidefallCapital Debt covenants matter. It won't however be the first or last company to buy itself back into ch11. I mean look at last quarter's buy backs in $FICO.

@leevalueroach Oct 4 3 clicks

Lee Roach on X

Looks like we got 13.5 million shares trading of $GME tonight. Not sure what’s going on. Besides the heavy insider buys. https://t.co/cU9aBeRwRR

@BarbarianCap Oct 4 1 click

Barbarian Capital on X

$ONON so in vogue, it made it to the WSJ The Sneaker Taking Over America Was Inspired by iPhones and a Vacuum Cleaner https://t.co/rNjjRCEEnb

@Adam_Wyden Oct 4 1 click

Adam D. Wyden on X

@At50w50882 @310Value @ctfn_news All of their existing debt is portable… this was by design and both mgmt / IR call this out regularly. Only need to raise the new debt….dovigi haters are always gonna hate. That’s why it needs to go private $GFL

@partners_road Oct 4 3 clicks

RiverRoadPartners on X

You can trade many things on the Chicago Merc: soyabeans, gold, lean hogs, crude & rates. Now, CME Group plans to introduce a new commodity to the list: compute. CME calls it “the new currency for the AI economy.” Be careful what you wish for (re: price discovery outside $NVDA).

@convequity Oct 4 1 click

Convequity on X

Convequity’s AI Bubble Barometer (ABBX) — Week of 2 October 2026 Our weekly framework tracks valuations, returns, capex, financing risk and infrastructure capacity across hyperscalers, neoclouds and model labs. Friday 2 Oct 2026 close (US ET): - Price drove the move: EV rose about $44B to about $14,114B. Invested capital (IC) was unchanged at $2,338B. - EV/IC: 6.04x, up 0.02x from 6.02x on 25 Sep. - All-in EV/IC: 6.76x. 1. Returns. Our paired, annualized forward ROIC (which is not trailing accounting ROIC) for Q2 2026 is 30.0%, against an AI WACC of 9.8%: 3.07x ROIC/WACC and a spread of +20.3 percentage points. 2. Capex. Latest-quarter cash capex is $228.7B. 3. Debt. Borrowings are $595B. All-in exposure is $3,624B, or 6.10x borrowings, adding purchase obligations, construction commitments and uncommenced leases on top of borrowings and leases. 4. Gigawatts. Current capacity is 45.7 GW, with 153.4 GW planned. $MSFT versus $GOOGL: MSFT’s all-in exposure is about 17x borrowings, and it is renting more: external capacity is about 12% now and 21% of planned capacity. GOOGL’s all-in exposure is 10.2x borrowings, while its external capacity share remains small at about 4% now. We see a price-led rise in valuation, with modeled forward returns still well above the cost of capital. Future spending commitments are much larger than borrowings alone suggest, and the reliance on rented capacity differs across companies.

@ACapitalLP Oct 4 1 click

A Capital on X

The Muse point is exactly why I think perception is increasingly the whole game. If $GOOGL acquired Muse competitor Instinct tomorrow, does $META’s implied multiple compress before a single earnings estimate changes? Probably. The market is repricing perceived competitive advantage long before anyone can quantify the actual economics.

@DevinLaSarre Oct 4 2 clicks

Devin LaSarre on X

Newest out. British American Tobacco: Harvest $BTI $PM $MO $IMBBY $HAYPP $STG https://t.co/IjOEe4izVz

M&T: Buy Reaffirmed, Despite Market Pullback, As Growth And Earnings Story Remain Strong

M&T Bank's 10.4% five-year revenue CAGR, improving net interest margin and commercial loan growth support its earnings resilience despite a…

MTB $31B

Albert Anthony Oct 3 2 clicks

The Art of Doing Financial Engineering

AI infrastructure’s $6.3 trillion financing gap is driving structured debt and asset-backed solutions, starting with Meta’s planned 5GW…

META $1.8TMS $294B

Net Interest Oct 3 5 clicks

Walmart: Fiscal 2028 Consensus Leaves No Room For Diesel Or Rollbacks

Walmart's FY28 consensus requires 15–18% operating-income growth above plan despite diesel costs, price investments and a non-recurring…

WMT $877B

Sameer Shahzad Oct 3 2 clicks

EXCLUSIVE: Lennar’s Big New Customer Is Its Own Spinoff, Millrose

Lennar is selling homes to former spinoff Millrose, whose revenue largely comes from Lennar and whose largest voting shareholder is…

LEN $18BMRP $3.8B

Hunterbrook Oct 2 2 clicks

TSOH Weekly Roundup (10/02/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Meta’s AI agent ambitions, Netflix’s TV gaming strategy and Arc’teryx’s rise from $500 million to more than $2…

META $1.8TNFLX $511B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 2 3 clicks

Nike: The Defense Holds, the Offense Is Unproven

Nike targets EBIT margin recovery from 5.2% in FY2027 to 13% by FY2032 as revenue declines persist and wholesale, China and digital remain…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

[scuttleslops] Cloudflare wants bots to pay; OpenAI’s ad ambitions; Memory chip competition; Muse is a proactive assistant; the Wintel of cars and robots; Atlassian as a coordinating layer

Cloudflare is building HTTP 402 payments for AI agents, using its web network to let publishers charge bots for content access.

NET $125B

scuttleblurb Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part Two: The Deep Dive

Nike’s second Latticework program examines the company and the global athletic footwear and apparel industry for professional investors.

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 1 click

Nike, Part One: The Story

Nike grew from a $1,000 shoe-distribution venture in 1964 into the largest sports brand, using athlete endorsements, product innovation and…

NKE $51B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 2 2 clicks

ServiceNow: Still A 'Strong Buy' As AI Revenues Gain Traction

ServiceNow expects AI annual contract value to reach $1.5 billion by year-end, with assist-pack consumption pricing supporting growth…

NOW $145B

Jetstream Research Oct 2 1 click

HWKN · short

Hawkins INC

Hawkins (HWKN) faces margin pressure as cost increases and municipal budget constraints weigh on its water-chemical distribution business.

HWKN $2.7B

Value Investors Club May 30 1 click

AMD Earnings and SpaceX Call Takeaways

SpaceX plans to build exclusively on Nvidia and lift compute toward 10 GW by end-2027, while Musk says AI memory demand is rising 200%…

AMD $959BNVDA $5.5T

Key Context by Tae Kim Aug 4

Floor & Decor: 2Q26 Business Update

Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2%, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted second-quarter gross profit and operating…

FND $4.9B

Speedwell Memos Aug 4 8 clicks

Floor & Decor 2Q26 Business Update: Encouraging Same Store Sales Trends

Floor & Decor’s same-store sales improved to minus 2% in 2Q26, while $45 million of tariff refunds lifted profit and funded pricing,…

FND $4.9B

Speedwell Research Aug 4

FICO FY 3Q'26: Welcome to "Gaming"

FICO's fiscal third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 26% year over year but missed consensus, and shares fell about 24% after earnings.

FICO $16B

MBI Deep Dives Aug 4 5 clicks

“The tip of the iceberg.”

Stevanato's 8% organic Q2 growth and 21% adjusted EBITDA growth came with a modest FY 2026 guidance lift after the Balda divestiture.

STVN $5.3B

Best Anchor Stocks Aug 4

Amazon Is Eating the World: 2Q Earnings Review

Amazon's AWS growth accelerated to 37%, while $220 billion of 2026 AI and AWS capex pushed trailing free cash flow to negative $7.6 billion.

AMZN $2.7T

Stock Thoughts Aug 4

You can’t sell the picks and doubt the miners

Amazon’s AWS grew 37% year over year, with $496 billion of backlog and plans to double power capacity by 2027, challenging doubts about…

AMZN $2.7T

Best Anchor Stocks Aug 3

Meta's "True" ROIC, and Some Notes from Meta and Alphabet's 10-Qs

Meta’s adjusted LTM ROIC is in the mid-50s after excluding $80 billion of construction in progress; that capacity will lower returns as AI…

META $1.8T

MBI Deep Dives Aug 3 8 clicks

[scuttleslops] BLDR, RYAN, APG, GFL, FND

Builders FirstSource reported Q2 2026 sales down 9% to $3.9 billion as weak housing demand and aggressive competitor pricing cut EBITDA…

BLDR $5.6B

scuttleblurb Aug 3 8 clicks

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