Thursday, October 1, 2026

Twilio (NYSE: TWLO) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings - Distribute Below $260

Twilio posted Q2 revenue of $1.50 billion, up 22%, and guided 16% Q3 growth; the note rates TWLO Hold at $305, with a $260 risk line.

TWLO $42B

Cestrian Capital Research Oct 1 1 click

Oct 1 DASH $83B

Why Muse May Never Need Ads

MBI Deep Dives

Oct 1 ADSK $49B

Autodesk (NASDAQ: ADSK) Stock Rating: Accumulate After Q2 FY1/27 Earnings - New Rating Bands, Stop And Price Targets Inside

Cestrian Capital Research

From X

@CapitalVoss Jan 29 1 click

Voss Capital on X

The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s

@catechwilliams Dec 19

catechwilliams on X

$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s

@catechwilliams Nov 13 1 click

catechwilliams on X

@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.

@catechwilliams Nov 13 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.

@catechwilliams Oct 9 4 clicks

catechwilliams on X

$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.

@IdeaBrunchEmail Oct 6

Idea Brunch on X

Idea Brunch with @Derek_K_Brown of Dardanelles Capital Tickers mentioned include $FLUT and $ELF https://t.co/RqbtxVhwEo

@catechwilliams Sep 23 1 click

catechwilliams on X

$CVGW In MRQ benefited from temp avocado price spike and 1-time F/X add-back. Volumes have been declining LDD for the last 3Qs ($CMG shifting suppliers). DOJ investigation continues. Prices & earnings reverting lower. Commodity distributor trading at 30x P/E is not sustainable.

@catechwilliams Aug 28

catechwilliams on X

$NX Just acquired peer Tyman. >3x leverage, never done a deal before, commodity business, customers all cutting numbers w deteriorating resi remodel activity ($AMWD yesterday, $MBC, $OC, $JELD). Stock is trading at close to 14x EPS. Seen this movie before. Earnings next week.

HOOY: A Hold For The YieldMax HOOD Option Income Strategy ETF

YieldMax HOOD Option Income Strategy ETF pays high weekly income from Robinhood volatility, but return-of-capital distributions and a 0.99%…

HOOD $98B

Ivan Gaddari Oct 1

How Ethos Sold Wall Street on AI While Powering an Analog Boiler Room

Ethos Technologies ($LIFE) sells AI-driven life insurance while relying heavily on multilevel marketing agencies using aggressive cold…

LIFE $2.2B

Hunterbrook Oct 1 1 click

Karman Holdings q2’26 Earnings Update

Karman Holdings reported 58% Q2 revenue growth, $1.3 billion backlog and margin expansion while replacing leadership and remediating…

KRMN $4.2B

Monte Independent Investment Research Oct 1

Innodata: The 45% Pullback Has Changed My View (Rating Upgrade)

Innodata's 45% pullback resets its valuation after two quarters of 50% revenue growth, though two customers still supply 71% of revenue and…

INOD $2.2B

Kurt Christensen Oct 1

[ROL – Rollins] The exterminator’s dilemma

Rollins’ shares have fallen more than 50% from their peak, resetting valuation as route density, reliable service and pricing support…

ROL $16B

scuttleblurb Oct 1 1 click

This Week in Special Situations: Pearson, CarMax, Talen Energy, KBR, Apollo Commercial Real Estate

Pearson, CarMax, Talen Energy, KBR and Apollo Commercial Real Estate lead a 33-company survey of activist campaigns, buybacks, M&A and…

KMX $7.6BTLN $18B

Latticework by MOI Global Oct 1 1 click

Group 1's CEO Said "Competitive Advantages and Opportunities." A Car Dealer? I Went Looking.

Group 1’s 19% ownership cap, tied to automaker franchise agreements, frames Conifer’s 1.9 million-share stake and potential buyback-driven…

GPI $2.8B

Cannibal Stocks Oct 1 1 click

Deckers (DECK): From Clown Shoes To Compounder

Deckers built HOKA into a brand nearing UGG’s scale, with HOKA revenue up about fivefold since FY21.

DECK $11B

TSOH Investment Research Oct 1 1 click

Q3 2026 Consolidated Holdings, Performance, and Ideas

Irrational Analysis reports 51.55% outperformance versus a semiconductor ETF, adding Credo for SerDes and QMCO for AI-driven tape storage…

CRDO $40BCBRS $39B

Irrational Analysis Oct 1

Occidental Petroleum: Great Inventories To Ride Lower Structural Capex In The Industry

Occidental Petroleum could benefit as declining shale inventories and high rates curb industry capex, tightening oil supply against demand…

OXY $60B

Gen Z Investor Sep 30

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) Stock Rating: Move To Distribute After Q2 FY12/26 Earnings - Near-Peak Margins And The Iran War

Chevron moved to Distribute at $204 after Q2 free cash flow reached $18.1 billion on $104 Brent, with near-peak margins driving supernormal…

CVX $416B

Cestrian Capital Research Sep 30

EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) Stock Rating: Hold After Q2 FY12/26 - Why Europe's Gas Shortage Has Not Lifted The Stock

EQT remains tied to roughly $3 Henry Hub gas despite European prices near $23 per MMBtu, with US LNG export capacity limiting overseas…

EQT $33B

Cestrian Capital Research Sep 30 2 clicks

POSCO Holdings: A Resource Conglomerate Still Priced Like A Distressed Steel Mill

POSCO Holdings trades at a 78.6% P/B discount as lithium, gas and trading profits reshape the steelmaker, while capex and lithium prices…

PKX $17B

Capital Connoisseur Sep 30

Research Roundup Vol. LIV

Research Roundup covers AAON's data-center cooling ramp, Knife River's margin recovery, ChronoScale's Microsoft-backed neocloud buildout…

AAON $7.2BKNF $2.8B

Monte Independent Investment Research Sep 30

Annaly Capital Management: Rate Swaps Doing The Heavy Lifting For This REIT

Annaly Capital Management’s rate swaps and MBS expansion lifted earnings available for distribution 28% year over year, supporting its…

NLY $14B

Andres Veurink Sep 30

Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales…

OTIS $25B

Asian Century Stocks Sep 29 1 click

Portfolio and performance update, September 2026

Portfolio returned 65.7% through September 28 versus the S&P 500’s 13.2%, while backing Tourmaline, EQT, Athabasca and SLB on gas demand…

EQT $33B

Guardian Research Sep 29 4 clicks

FTAI Aviation (FTAI US) – The Engine Shop That Owns the Engines

FTAI Aviation’s engine-exchange model swaps CFM56 engines in days rather than 200-day overhauls, driving Aerospace Products adjusted EBITDA…

FTAI $18B

Bristlemoon Capital Sep 29 3 clicks

Dark arts or infinite reload? $TTD’s CEO options and the repricing proxy

The Trade Desk’s CEO received a new 10-year option package targeting $105 per share as the company seeks shareholder approval to reprice…

TTD $5.8B

Yet Another Value Blog Sep 29 4 clicks

Beam Therapeutics: Ignore The Anthropic Noise And Focus On Clinical Progress

Beam Therapeutics’ BEAM-302 AATD gene-editing program anchors its 2028–2029 upside, while a 2–3 year cash runway leaves dilution likely…

BEAM $2.6B

Robert J. Lake Sep 29

Thursday, October 1, 2026

Voss Capital on X

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catechwilliams on X

catechwilliams on X

catechwilliams on X

Idea Brunch on X

catechwilliams on X

catechwilliams on X

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