Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
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Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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Toll roads in the sky

Asia's elevator boom favors maintenance and modernization providers, with Otis deriving nearly 90% of operating profit from after-sales services rather than new installations.

OTIS $24B
Asian Century Stocks 1 click

From X

@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

$CB with some pretty chilling, but not entirely commentary on pricing on commercial property lines as the market continues to soften: Pricing on new biz or renewals (-12%) Pricing on the biz they chose not to renew or rejected (-40%) YOY! Otherwise, $CB was brutally honest about the softening across the marketplace in casualty lines and E&S in general. With MGA's flooding the market, this isn't a dynamic that changes overnight. Probably not a great market environment for our friends at $KNSL. Do bulls understand what they own?
@convequity

Convequity on X

Crypto Basket Update: COIN, CRCL & HOOD Within our “buy the dip” crypto basket we are de-prioritizing Coinbase relative to Circle. $COIN lagged amid prolonged CLARITY Act uncertainty and faces revenue risk from the ongoing USDC custody renegotiation with $CRCL. Broader Bitcoin structural concerns (miners shifting to AI) also temper the trading-volume outlook. Circle stands out as the preferred stablecoin exposure. Stablecoins are the natural token/payment rail for AI agents — a structural driver distinct from trading hype — with added tailwinds from interest rate sensitivity and attractive asymmetry after the pullback. $HOOD is held at lower conviction as one of several interchangeable infrastructure bets. We are maintaining current weights across the basket but leaning toward adding to Circle as the highest-conviction name.
@convequity

Convequity on X

Palantir remains our marquee software conviction. Growth is accelerating as ontology and governance become essential for secure AI deployment in government and enterprise. The bear case is model dependency, but this is where $PLTR shines. Enterprises risk losing their information and knowhow edge by feeding proprietary data to foundation model providers — their own suppliers. Satya Nadella’s “Reverse Information Paradox” captures it perfectly. Microsoft did it with Lotus/WordPerfect (Excel/Word), and Anthropic is already demonstrating such practices with Claude Design competing with Figma — and countless other examples too. Palantir’s strong data control and governance moat positions it to avoid the trap. Developing its own foundation model could be a game-changer, offering true IP protection.
@BlueDuckCap 1 click

BDC on X

I've been as skeptical of the semi hype/froth as any of the bears - but also open minded as per our process. We've largely avoided material positions on the long side in the space, with the exception of some trades here and there and some 2nd/3rd order beneficiaries that we identified early-ish. Also short $SOXX in decent size. But that said, and sticking with the open-minded process - it's pretty rare to see gaps between fwd EPS estimates and stock price as wide as what is visible in $SNDK here:

Investor Letters

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On’s Premium Playbook

On Holdings targets premium growth through 2029, using LightSpray soccer cleats and higher pricing, with ASPs rising from $145 to $170…

ONON $11B
TSOH Investment Research 4 clicks

Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific…

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

The Brookfield Moat Masterclass

Brookfield’s BN, BAM, BIP, BEP and BBUC span asset management, infrastructure, renewables and private equity, with BN valued at a 15–20%…

BN $82B
Brad Thomas
CBOE · long

Cboe Global Markets INC

Cboe Global Markets trades near $232, with a roughly $24.3 billion market cap, net cash and a 16-17x forward P/E.

CBOE $29B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks

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