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Sunday, September 27, 2026

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Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific Land.

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

Another issue with $ROL is that now that it is becoming easier to set up a business and website and market on the web, if i was a pest technician I'd think about how to go solo so that I don't need to give up all my margin to someone else just because they are setting up all the lead gen infrastructure. Not surprised to see pretty bad non-compete terms with $ROL imposes on their technicians. Already seems to be another advantage that is facing pressure.
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

It was not looking good even in 2024 there was a lot of evidence for structural pressure on web traffic viewership and thus the value of led gen website providers, which primarily provided content and information. Never expected $ROL, a provider of pest control to become an AI loser But with Muse being able to negotiate prices and price transparency issues now becoming much more efficient a lot of business models could shrink pretty significantly that relied on lazy consumers. I remember in NYC i was once had to call pest control and negotiated with maybe 5 providers, the prices were absurd and it was such a waste of time. Deploying a muse agent to do this dirty work would have been so helpful
@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks
PSKY · short

Paramount Skydance CORP

Paramount Skydance (PSKY) is a levered media conglomerate expected to merge with Warner Bros. Discovery in the third quarter.

PSKY $11B
Value Investors Club 4 clicks

What's going on with Marvell?

Marvell's Structera CXL cards make surplus DDR4 usable in memory pools, with dense SRAM IP helping mask latency amid DRAM shortages.

MRVL $235B
Irrational Analysis

What I Read This Week

Weekly reading list covers Agnico Eagle, Cameco, Dollar Tree, Meta, Braze and Apollo across mining, retail, AI and insurance.

DLTR $21BAPO $69B
Stock Thoughts

Portfolio Update May 2026

Portfolio update: sold Nomad Foods, trimmed Copart, added Pool Corp and Floor & Decor, and bought Tractor Supply as the portfolio trails…

TSCO $16B
D Invests

SoFi: DCF Valuation

SoFi's DCF values shares at $18, forecasting adjusted net revenue growth from 30% in 2026 to 3.5% by 2035 as it scales its digital bank…

SOFI $20B
Hated Moats 4 clicks

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