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Sunday, September 27, 2026

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Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific Land.

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

Another issue with $ROL is that now that it is becoming easier to set up a business and website and market on the web, if i was a pest technician I'd think about how to go solo so that I don't need to give up all my margin to someone else just because they are setting up all the lead gen infrastructure. Not surprised to see pretty bad non-compete terms with $ROL imposes on their technicians. Already seems to be another advantage that is facing pressure.
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

It was not looking good even in 2024 there was a lot of evidence for structural pressure on web traffic viewership and thus the value of led gen website providers, which primarily provided content and information. Never expected $ROL, a provider of pest control to become an AI loser But with Muse being able to negotiate prices and price transparency issues now becoming much more efficient a lot of business models could shrink pretty significantly that relied on lazy consumers. I remember in NYC i was once had to call pest control and negotiated with maybe 5 providers, the prices were absurd and it was such a waste of time. Deploying a muse agent to do this dirty work would have been so helpful
@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.

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Reddit: DCF Valuation

Reddit’s DCF values shares at $225, driven by international ARPU expansion from $2.2 to $8.3 by 2035 and 38% operating margins.

RDDT $28B
Hated Moats 7 clicks
ZTS · long

Zoetis INC

Zoetis, the animal prescription-medicines company, is presented as a long investment despite concerns around its 2026 and 2027 outlook.

ZTS $29B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

SAP: Deep Dive Analysis

SAP’s deeply embedded ERP suite creates high switching costs as it moves customers to cloud subscriptions and embeds AI in core workflows.

SAP $241B
Hated Moats

PDD

PDD uses group buying and daily app rewards to turn shoppers into distributors, then monetizes merchant attention through advertising and…

PDD $107B
Bearstone

Stretch Marks

Strategy owns 847,363 Bitcoin and funded $13.7 billion of purchases this year with Stretch preferred stock, a variable-dividend security…

MSTR $61B
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