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Sunday, September 27, 2026

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Hindsight Capital

Hindsight Capital tests crisis-era investment decisions using anonymized company financials, including TransDigm, Halma and Texas Pacific Land.

TDG $60BTPL $23B
Rebound Capital 6 clicks

From X

@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

Another issue with $ROL is that now that it is becoming easier to set up a business and website and market on the web, if i was a pest technician I'd think about how to go solo so that I don't need to give up all my margin to someone else just because they are setting up all the lead gen infrastructure. Not surprised to see pretty bad non-compete terms with $ROL imposes on their technicians. Already seems to be another advantage that is facing pressure.
@Fierce__beast 1 click

Fierce_beast on X

It was not looking good even in 2024 there was a lot of evidence for structural pressure on web traffic viewership and thus the value of led gen website providers, which primarily provided content and information. Never expected $ROL, a provider of pest control to become an AI loser But with Muse being able to negotiate prices and price transparency issues now becoming much more efficient a lot of business models could shrink pretty significantly that relied on lazy consumers. I remember in NYC i was once had to call pest control and negotiated with maybe 5 providers, the prices were absurd and it was such a waste of time. Deploying a muse agent to do this dirty work would have been so helpful
@AltayCapital 2 clicks

AltayCap on X

The only industries where obvious capital allocation lingo is useful is leasing / banking / insurance. It's much more nebulous in operating businesses that do real things. $AER ceo saying the cheapest commercial jets are on the NYSE under the ticker AER is easy to understand. As math is pencilling out cost of new orders vs buying back stock. $FOUR competes in the real world. Leasing/banking products are fungible. Much harder biz to forecast. Cap allocation is still important, but a lot harder.
@Fierce__beast

Fierce_beast on X

I guess the issue with buying corporate debt is what if interest rates keep going up or if there is inflation? Fixed rate coupon at 6% you might need to wait till maturity to get paid back. But what if there's also increased inflation? according to blackrock it looks like weighted average maturity is like 9-10 years or so for their BBB index $LQDP. With $MCD and $OTIS i think you get a 6%+ total return in most inflation or interest rate environments at these valuations, hopefully more. I was underwriting something closer to 7-8% for both those stocks personally, but probably 6% would be OK, as I am 200% leveraged long and maybe gonna go higher, so expected return on my equity from these ideas is closer to 12%, maybe 16%. But then adds some other benefits that seem decently valuable, like MCD beta .4, otis .88, defensively better than a lot of stocks in case of a recession. Maybe $MCD is just getting degrossed as everyone leveraged it up on their portfolios at the same time expecting an accepetable return of lets say 5% but leveraged 2x or more they were getting a 10%+ ROE on thier protfolio and now degrossing it at the same time. Not totally sure if i'm underwriting correctly, or if this is the best idea in the world, seemed just OK.

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TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/25/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup covers Ralph Lauren’s $1 billion distribution pullback, Peloton’s $2,195 foldable treadmill and $800 million…

RL $21B
TSOH Investment Research 5 clicks

CoreWeave, Inc (CRWV)

CoreWeave funds GPU data-center expansion with debt backed by $104 billion in contracted revenue, while GPU cloud rentals generate roughly…

CRWV $49B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets 9 clicks
FTAI · long

Ftai Aviation LTD

FTAI Aviation, valued near $23 billion at roughly $226 per share, is presented as a long investment.

FTAI $17B
Value Investors Club

TSOH Weekly Roundup (08/28/2026)

TSOH Weekly Roundup tracks Dick’s Sporting Goods’ Foot Locker setback and Brown-Forman’s internal debate over a potential Pernod Ricard…

DKS $12B
TSOH Investment Research

QXO Inc.

QXO is building a North American construction-products distributor through Beacon, Kodiak and TopBuild, targeting $18.1 billion of combined…

QXO $12B
SixSigmaCapital: Navigating the Financial Markets

Intuit FY2026 Earnings Review

Intuit beat FY2026 estimates despite a $293 million restructuring charge, as management lowered growth ambitions and expanded Mailchimp and…

INTU $72B
Global Outperformers

Research Roundup Vol. L

Wolfspeed, Nordson and Nucor target AI data-center demand through 800-VDC power, chip testing equipment and domestic steel capacity, aided…

NDSN $18BNUE $54B
Monte Independent Investment Research

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