Friday, September 18, 2026

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QNT: The 100× Question

Quantinuum's improving logical-qubit error correction, 1,504 successful-circuit benchmark score and paid deployments at RIKEN, BMW and Oracle frame quantum computing as a costly specialty…

From X

@BlueDuckCap

BDC on X

Just surfacing this one to demonstrate we are not and never were $snap absolutists. We will go long and short and when facts and circumstances change our opinion changes too. And NO - Specs will not be a mass market hit this holiday season. Too expensive and awk form. But here's the bull case from here: 1. FCF/Share is the metric mgmt now focused on. By definition that requires fresh cost and SBC discipline. 16% hc reduction and flat share count already in place. $500mn in opex savings about to flow through. 2. Ads biz stable enough. 9% growth in Q2. Guide implies so decel. But ad checks stable vs Q2. Decent enough. Some progress on ad tech. Only needs 5% growth next year to hit our numbs. 3. Sub biz $1.2B rr, growing 85%. Needs 50% growth next year to hit numbs. 25mn paid subs, still well below penetration threshold of 7-12%. 4. Specs tech is real. 7k+ patents. Real use cases. What's that worth? $META or $MSFT or $AMZN could buy Specs for the patents alone and pay $2B and it would be nothing to them but all the call optionality which could incubate until form factor is mass market. 5. Lets just say Specs is worth $2B to a strategic buyer or partner. That implies $snap 7.5B or $4.5/ share. In this scenario then FCF/share at SNAP goes to over $1/share, easily. So 4.5x FCF on a business still growing revenue mid teens. @evanspiegel Specs are cool. But can't keep spending $500mn a year on them. Bring in a minority investor please and lets make SNAP stock great again. @IrenicCap

House of Weichai

Weichai Power built a global engine group through Baudouin and a 46% stake in PSIX, positioning both for large-bore generator demand from…

Diamond Estates: Research Note

Diamond Estates Wines & Spirits plans to expand grocery and export sales, invest in six brands, and improve winery operations through FY29.

Vizsla Silver (VZLA)

Vizsla Silver's Panuco project in Sinaloa remains shut after nine workers were found dead, delaying construction of a fully funded 17.4 Moz…

EFXT · long

Enerflex LTD

Enerflex, a $3 billion natural gas infrastructure and equipment company, blends contracted energy-services cash flows with equipment…

Research Roundup Vol. LII

Dell’s AI-server demand and Microchip’s data-center components lead updates on Cirrus Logic and STMicroelectronics, alongside a weekly…

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

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