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Monday, September 14, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$BSP lockup comes right at the end of the year....might want to file that date away, and go read the S1. Difficult to find a more flawed business model and aggregios valuation then this. It is Upland reincarnated and perhaps Valeant if they start getting dodgy on their receivables as financing starts drying up. BSP business is simply a game of removing almost all costs of broken, zombie software companies (bring r&d to near zero, remove a bulk of the employees, jack the price to any residual customers, report improved metrics, do not report the metrics you do not want to show (stopped reporting NRR, other metrics post IPO). An Italian based rollup of a collection of 2012 point solutions (Vimeo, Brightcove, Eventbrite, AOL (yes that AOL), and a bunch of others that were failed investments on their own right and in decline. Very little in shared synergies. The cadence of deals and size of deals has been dramatically increasing since 2003 (as you would expect). sub 300m in 2023, 800m in 2024, 2B in 2025, and already at 4B for 2026. This law of large numbers will continue to have to scale to continue to be able to show the financial wizardly of improved adjusted profits. Because as the cohorts exhaust the initial boost from price increases and cost cuts the businesses start more aggressively shedding their customer base (increasing the melt of the ice cube), so before these metrics infect their financials they need new deals to over run the melt (not a coincidence deal flow is faster and bigger). And thats the game, the equity price (and future dilution a certainty) (as they are around 6-7B net debt once they close their recent acquisition, this is post the ipo raise too). Once/if the story, law of numbers cannot run anymore to the right with financing, the gig will be up. Plenty of prior versions of this exact model as predecessors just go look at Upland software $UPLD. Won't end well but weird float dynamics with the A shares, IPO, lockup (12/28) and the aggressiveness of software/semi currently that is squeezing lots of more obvious AI disrupted software vendors, so its obvious where their ends up ultimately but might be treacherous on its path there, certainly tough until the float increases to short. Should be fun to watch, and an opportunity once liquidity opens up

Investor Letters

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Adobe 3Q26 Update

Adobe’s fiscal 3Q26 revenue grew 13%, while ARR growth slowed to 9.3% excluding Semrush.

ADBE $99B
Speedwell Memos 2 clicks

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

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ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click
NXPI · long

Nxp Semiconductors NV

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NXPI $60B
Value Investors Club 1 click

National Beverage Update

National Beverage’s rare share repurchase is framed as a buy signal, with 50% upside projected.

FIZZ $2.9B
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 3 clicks

[$MNDY] Monday.com

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MNDY $3.7B
Lewistown Capital

The Priority Technology Situation

Priority Technology received an opportunistic buyout proposal, with its business better suited to remaining public absent a much higher…

PRTH $643M
Nat Stewart - Stock Picking Newsletter 5 clicks

Tis The (Earnings) Season

Argentine banks, tariff-exposed stocks and Customer’s Bancorp anchor an earnings-season watchlist after Milei’s election victory,…

CUBI $2.7B
Cluseau Research 3 clicks

Why I bought FTAI Aviation

FTAI Aviation’s engine exchange model, owned fleet and Chromalloy PMA partnership target lower-cost CFM56 and V2500 maintenance while…

FTAI $19B
Kairos Research

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