NYSE

T1 Energy Inc.

TE

4 stories

$686M Market cap · 2026-10-23

@StableBread

Fajasy on X

First Solar $FSLR trades at 6.7x TTM EBITDA and 10.4x TTM net income, while TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO trades at just 0.9x and 2.0x. At $3.83/share, $TOYO has a market cap of $163.6M and an EV of $137.2M ($163.6M + $25.7M of bank loans + $51.4M owed to VSUN, an affiliate - $103.5M of cash). It trades at 0.9x TTM EBITDA of $156.4M, 2.0x TTM net income of $80.5M, and 0.78x its $209.8M of book value. Since 80.7% of its H1 revenue came from U.S. end customers, $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S. (TTM multiples as of the October 26 close): → First Solar $FSLR (U.S. thin-film panel maker): 6.7x EV/EBITDA, 10.4x P/E, 1.75x P/B, and down 47.2% from its 2026 high. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ (panel and battery storage maker): 18.8x EV/EBITDA, a net loss, 0.22x P/B, and down 65.2%. → JinkoSolar $JKS (China-based panel maker): A net loss, 0.19x P/B, and down 72.7%. → T1 Energy $TE (Texas panel assembler building a U.S. cell plant): Negative EBITDA, a net loss, 2.95x P/B, and down 82.4%. So the market prices $TOYO’s earnings at 0.9x EBITDA, less than a seventh of First Solar’s 6.7x, a multiple that only makes sense if the four U.S. trade actions on its Ethiopian cells wipe out most of those earnings. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. I was originally going to write up T1 Energy until I found $TOYO, which offers a more attractive setup mainly because (1) it’s profitable, with $80.5M of TTM net income vs. T1’s $367.8M net loss, (2) it trades at 0.78x book vs. T1’s 2.95x, and (3) it has $26.4M of net cash vs. T1’s $629.2M of net debt.
@StableBread 1 click

Fajasy on X

A solar manufacturer that grew revenue 141.5% in 2025 now trades at 2.0x TTM earnings, after falling 77.5% from its June peak. U.S. customs (CBP) has been detaining its Ethiopian cells since May, and Commerce is deciding whether they should pay the duties on Chinese cells, with a first ruling due around December 14. That company is TOYO Co., Ltd $TOYO, now at $3.83/share. $TOYO’s closest comps are four other listed solar manufacturers selling into the U.S., and all four are down from their 2026 highs too, as of the October 26 close: → First Solar $FSLR: Down 47.2% to $168.15/share. → Canadian Solar $CSIQ: Down 65.2% to $8.85/share. → JinkoSolar $JKS: Down 72.7% to $8.17/share. → T1 Energy $TE: Down 82.4% to $2.12/share. Only $TE has fallen further from its 2026 high. Besides CBP’s detentions and the Ethiopia inquiry, four more overhangs landed after the June peak: 1) Discounted stock sale: $TOYO sold $50M of stock and warrants at $11.00 on June 24, a 14.9% discount to the prior close, and the stock fell 38.8% that day to $7.91. 2) New tariff: An August 6 proclamation set a 15% U.S. tariff on imported solar cells and panels, including $TOYO’s cells from Ethiopia, starting December 4. 3) Guidance dropped: $TOYO didn’t reaffirm its 2026 targets with its H1 results on August 19, when the stock fell 24.2%, and on September 28 only said it expects positive EBITDA for H2 2026. 4) Parent delisted: The Tokyo Stock Exchange delisted Abalance, the Japanese group that controls $TOYO, on September 26. Still, $TOYO is profitable and has net cash: → Earnings: $156.4M of TTM EBITDA and $80.5M of TTM net income. → Cash flow: $61.4M from operations in H1 2026, less $27.8M of capex, for $33.7M of FCF. → Balance sheet: Went from a going-concern warning to positive working capital in six months, with $26.4M of net cash as of June 30. → Texas: Doubled its Texas module capacity to 2 GW and signed ~$240M of binding module contracts since mid-June. → Tax credits: Management expects $140M/year of U.S. manufacturing tax credits at full Texas output, 85.6% of $TOYO’s market cap, and leaves those credits out of its forecasts. $TOYO’s EV of $137.2M is just 0.9x its TTM EBITDA. So is $TOYO a profitable non-Chinese cell maker on sale, or is the market right that Ethiopia’s U.S. sales won’t last?
@aleabitoreddit 1 click

Serenity on X

I made a new “It’s All Over” portfolio today of even higher beta names than $AAOI. The requirements: 1. Fell off a cliff 2. Lower than when they announced their catalysts 3. Increasing fundamentals 4. Looks like the chart 5. Short interest spiking Stuff like $ALMU at $7, $CIFR at $8, $ASTS at $39, and some Leopold trades like $TE at $2.5, $SHAZ at $25. Not a recommendation, just curious how this performs into year end while doomposts are everywhere. Anyone got any other ones?

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