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Monday, September 14, 2026

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@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

$BSP lockup comes right at the end of the year....might want to file that date away, and go read the S1. Difficult to find a more flawed business model and aggregios valuation then this. It is Upland reincarnated and perhaps Valeant if they start getting dodgy on their receivables as financing starts drying up. BSP business is simply a game of removing almost all costs of broken, zombie software companies (bring r&d to near zero, remove a bulk of the employees, jack the price to any residual customers, report improved metrics, do not report the metrics you do not want to show (stopped reporting NRR, other metrics post IPO). An Italian based rollup of a collection of 2012 point solutions (Vimeo, Brightcove, Eventbrite, AOL (yes that AOL), and a bunch of others that were failed investments on their own right and in decline. Very little in shared synergies. The cadence of deals and size of deals has been dramatically increasing since 2003 (as you would expect). sub 300m in 2023, 800m in 2024, 2B in 2025, and already at 4B for 2026. This law of large numbers will continue to have to scale to continue to be able to show the financial wizardly of improved adjusted profits. Because as the cohorts exhaust the initial boost from price increases and cost cuts the businesses start more aggressively shedding their customer base (increasing the melt of the ice cube), so before these metrics infect their financials they need new deals to over run the melt (not a coincidence deal flow is faster and bigger). And thats the game, the equity price (and future dilution a certainty) (as they are around 6-7B net debt once they close their recent acquisition, this is post the ipo raise too). Once/if the story, law of numbers cannot run anymore to the right with financing, the gig will be up. Plenty of prior versions of this exact model as predecessors just go look at Upland software $UPLD. Won't end well but weird float dynamics with the A shares, IPO, lockup (12/28) and the aggressiveness of software/semi currently that is squeezing lots of more obvious AI disrupted software vendors, so its obvious where their ends up ultimately but might be treacherous on its path there, certainly tough until the float increases to short. Should be fun to watch, and an opportunity once liquidity opens up

Investor Letters

All letters

Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Unpolished Thoughts on Stocks #1

Genius Sports aims to turn official sports data into AI-driven, real-time advertising, with media and ads already about 40% of revenue.

GENI $1.6B
Sylence Capital 2 clicks
NCNO · long

Ncino INC

NCino is a commercial-lending system of record for banks and credit unions, trading at roughly 3x enterprise value to sales.

NCNO $2.1B
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

SAP: DCF Valuation

SAP’s DCF valuation sets a $260 base-case target versus a $155.09 ADR price, based on cloud migration, AI efficiencies and expanding EBIT…

SAP $247B
Hated Moats

Duffy’s Last Dance

CME CEO Terry Duffy moves to executive chairman while suing the CFTC over Kalshi’s approval to list perpetual futures, defending CME’s…

CME $99B
Net Interest

Adobe Business History

Adobe built PostScript, Photoshop and PDF into desktop-publishing standards, using free Acrobat Reader and integrated Creative Suite tools…

ADBE $99B
Speedwell Memos 1 click

Deep Dive: XPEL

XPEL sells paint-protection film and DAP cutting software, using 90,000-plus vehicle templates to win share from 3M and Eastman.

XPEL $1.2B
Rebound Capital 1 click

On the Horizon

A tiny defense supplier trades at roughly 6.5x estimated normalized EBIT as military-program volumes rise and a strategic review considers…

AIRI $12M
The Mikro Kap 1 click

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