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Monday, September 14, 2026

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@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

After Montgomery-Caribe and the impact on liability for brokers, and the general trend of dramatically higher insurance across the trucking space in recent years. How do people close to the freight market think about the truck rental companies like a U-Haul? If we are pushing liability on professional drivers, what is the case to give everyday drivers access to various side truck fleets and send them off to drive them on American highways? Clearly this practice seems unlikely to go away and U-Haul likely can pass escalating insurance costs on consumers better than the professional transport market but something to think about relative to margins and future demand in this space I think..... $UHAL
@BrokenMoats 1 click

Broken Moats on X

still feel the rotation from July-current is more about a short squeeze (the opposite end of the Situational Awareness portfolio) and the dispersion of having to unwind the long semi trade portion. But that rubber band is similarly stretched as it was the opposite direction at the end of June. Still feel its in the process of reversing (even the morning action today looks like a top could set in?) $RNG, $IT, $APPN, $TGT, $EXPE, $FDS, $PAYC, $ELF, $MET, $MFC, $GDDY, $V, and many more that were AI losers that have had incredible runs in the past 4-6 weeks seem like good ways to be short against a snap back to AI or a more seasonal unwind from policy risk trying to control rates, midterm/fall seasonal factors, etc. Especially with SaaS earnings taking the stage later this week and next (overshadowed by $NVDA on Wednesday)
@ActAccordingly

PAA Research on X

Yes, you're touching on some of the issues that $Z/$ZG faces in the residential real estate landscape. There are reasons that the stock trades at 8-9x FY27 consensus EBITDA even though the company continues to grow revenues at a mid-teens clip YOY organically while generating huge FCF. We've written HUNDREDS of pages on these issues so this is not the right forum to litigate the relative merits of any of these concerns. Zillow has a lot of organic initiatives that should sustain growth for the next few years. From all my work, the commission structure of the industry is not changing much right now, but of course that seems inevitable at some point. If you really drill down to what $Z/$ZG is doing strategically it's all about becoming more deeply integrated into the transaction. Follow-up Boss was the most important acquisition the company ever made IMO. You don't need to see around corners here, but you have to look through the noise to see what the company's doing.
@BrokenMoats

Broken Moats on X

The bigger issue I think is if changes in commission structures ongoing in real estate changes Zillows position in the industry and if they need to overhaul their model on the housing side? ZG running straight into https://t.co/xkzar3nuEl with success to increase supply and they'll both likely end up sharing that market (more a negative against csgp as they have the larger share in the rental space currently) but I think they end up shrinking that pie with their competitive attacks against each other. The compass and regional MLS provider lawsuit on exclusives, supply I think is the bigger case hanging over $ZG currently because thats one of the few threats to their dominance in mindhare in shopping/looking at homes online and their ad revenues there

Investor Letters

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Alarm.com: False Alarm?

Alarm.com, founded after CEO Steve Trundle’s bad home-security experience, has fallen from $105 in 2020 to about $55, testing whether…

ALRM $2.6B
TSOH Investment Research 1 click

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $74B
Net Interest 1 click
TYL · long

Tyler Technologies INC

Tyler Technologies, TYL, is positioned as a resilient govtech software provider if AI disrupts enterprise SaaS.

TYL $14B
Value Investors Club

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 6 clicks

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