Bullpen.News From Edwin Dorsey
Get Daily Recap Feedback

Sunday, September 13, 2026

Back to today

CVD Equipment Corporation (NASDAQ:CVV)

CVD Equipment is winding down manufacturing, cutting half its staff and weighing liquidation, with $23.5 million of cash and a 130,000-square-foot Long Island property central to…

CVV $30M
Obscure Stocks 2 clicks

From X

@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

Just hammering this home. For simplicity's sake, let's use round numbers for 2025: 1) J&T Order Volume Grows: 75% y/y 2) Tiktok & Other Customers Grows: 40% y/y 3) J&T Grows Market Share from 27% in 2024 > 33% in 2025 (disclosed in the 1H25 Report) 4) Non-platform % of revenue goes from 0% > 10% in 2025. All the data-points line up. Takeaway: It can be true that J&T grew 75% y/y, AND Tiktok is slowing to 40% y/y orders growth (and 30% y/y GMV). - Market narrative of Tiktok competition increasing is likely wrong. - Means that Shopee's recent spend is not a defensive move or coming from a weakened position. - In fact, they're pressing harder, while competition is weak (That's just how they operate. They waited to grow Monee loans, until the digibanks started blowing up. That's why you see an inflection in loan growth 2 years ago. Compare that to when Indo digibank NPLs started blowing up, and you'll see the correlation). Included pictures of the math (thanks ChatGPT). $SE $1519.HK
@HaydenCapital

Fred Liu on X

$SE is down -45% over the past few months. The prevailing bear case seems to hinge on two points: 1) Rising fear of TikTok Shop competition, and 2) Shopee reinvesting more heavily into logistics, capping margins at ~0.7% of GMV this year vs. prior expectations of ~1.2%. The concern is that this spend is defensive - a necessary response to TikTok rather than a choice. But alt data is telling a different story. TikTok Shop’s Southeast Asia GMV growth has slowed materially over the past few quarters - from 70%+ in 2Q25 to ~30%+ by late 2025. That’s only modestly above Shopee’s own growth rate. More notably, TikTok’s relative share vs. Shopee in Indonesia (~50% of regional GMV) has effectively flat-lined over the past year. If this data is directionally right, Shopee’s ~50 bps of reinvestment looks discretionary and offensive -widening the moat - rather than a defensive reaction to competitive pressure. And critically, that implies the margin compression is temporary, not structural. Oh, and both Shopee & Tiktok are raising take-rates. Not usually the sign of a competitor trying to aggressively take share... Curious, what am I missing? Is the -45% drawdown really just “2026 margins down > negative 2026 earnings revisions > stock down,” even if margins are likely to re-expand next year? And Shopee emerges with a wider moat after? The competitive backdrop looks like it’s improving, not deteriorating...

Investor Letters

All letters

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 2 clicks

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $73B
Net Interest 1 click

NET Power (NPWR):

NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…

NPWR $160M
Triple S Special Situations Investing 2 clicks
HNRG · long

Hallador Energy CO

Hallador Energy, a coal producer, is pitched as a long based on five value components and potential 2026 catalysts.

HNRG $685M
Value Investors Club 3 clicks

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…

PRTH $643M
Yet Another Value Podcast 3 clicks

Publications we follow

Every publication on this site, hand-picked.

108 publications

Newsletters 91

YouTube 4

Blogs 12

Seeking Alpha 31 of 175

Nominate a publication

X accounts we follow

Every account on this site, hand-picked.

72 accounts
Nominate an account

Investor letters we follow

78 firms

Sectors

Ordered by how often our editor reaches for them.