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Saturday, September 12, 2026

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@ACapitalLP 1 click

A Capital on X

The best trades are where perception <> reality. A common trader exercise is to ask yourself: who is on the other side of the trade and why are they selling to you? What information do they have? Are they more informed than you? The best opportunities are where the seller isn’t more informed, they’re simply misinformed about what’s actually going on. Take $OWL, where the prevailing narrative was a private credit apocalypse, but you did the work and saw the residual value in the fund stakes business and an overblown level of negative sentiment. Or $TLN, where Governor Josh Shapiro and CNN want you to believe data centers are the problem, while the thirst for compute, contractual cash flows and need for electricity remain undeniable. The narrative may work against you initially. That’s often what creates the opportunity. But if your work is thorough enough, your thesis is right and you can hang in there, the gap between perception and reality eventually closes. That’s where alpha is made.
@KEDM_COM

KEDM.com on X

Chinese stockbrokers FUTU $FUTU and Up Fintech $TIGR are taking a beating after the Chinese securities regulator ordered all unauthorized Mainland accounts to be closed within 2 years, with only sell orders and fund withdrawals allowed. Both companies will be fined, but a rumored 1.85b CNY fine for FUTU is less than 2 months of profit. For FUTU, mainlanders are 13% of accounts but closer to 20% of total assets and revenue. FUTU's rapid growth in HK and SE Asia has diversified the business in recent years, and the loss of Chinese customers is less than 1 year's worth of customer growth outside China. What remains is a faster-growing, HK/SE Asia consumer play with no China risk, which probably trades at 8x P/E with net cash. That is, if this was the last shoe to drop and Mother China isn’t intent on ruining them.

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The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Apollo Global Management’s five defining deals, from Executive Life to Intel, built a $1 trillion asset manager spanning insurance and…

APO $74B
Net Interest 1 click

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

MKL $22B
TSOH Investment Research 2 clicks
UHS · long

Universal Health Svcs INC

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $10B
Value Investors Club 5 clicks

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B
Hated Moats 5 clicks
UBER 2026-09-07

A quick update on Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives will update prior company analyses through year-end, beginning with Uber, while deferring new work on Micron and S&P Global.

UBER $145B
MBI Deep Dives 5 clicks

Celsius: The Pepsi Put

Celsius holds 20% of the U.S. energy-drink market and 40% of sugar-free sales, but its $1.65 billion Alani acquisition complicates…

PEP $182B
TSOH Investment Research 7 clicks

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