Saturday, September 12, 2026

Lululemon: The 15-Minute Thesis

Lululemon’s North American sales, margins and legging demand are falling as Alo and Vuori gain share, leaving its brand moat and depressed valuation in question.

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 11 2 clicks

Sep 11 LULU $11B

Why “Affordable Luxury” Doesn't Compound

MBI Deep Dives 2 clicks

Sep 11 APO $73B

The Five Deals That Made Apollo

Net Interest 1 click

From X

@ToffCap May 11 1 click

ToffCap on X

Whenever there's a very strong move on earnings, I always check it out and almost always add / buy. From experience I know that the market generally doesn't price strong news properly. At best, most often the share price will only reflect the earnings dynamics, but not any multiple rerating. And in case of VERY strong earnings (such as $EVC) the market will not even price those properly, leaving plenty to go for the price on both earnings and multiple rerating. People in it for a trade will sell down on the massive move. Those that made a bundle might also, as the position becomes too large. And others who missed it are biased in buying something that already ran so much. This often leads to a few days of 'pressure', and a good moment to add. And then the market does its work.

@Fierce__beast May 11

Fierce_beast on X

the bear case for $udmy / $COUR https://t.co/fN3TS2Jmm3

@marginofdanger May 9 1 click

marginofdanger on X

The SF housing market is on fire. Should bode very well for $FPH's Candlestick project, including finding financing partners. https://t.co/vFjXoS2coK

@TimyanBankAlert May 8

Timyan Bank Alert on X

@DrSichuan at this rate, a few more. I'm amazed people keep voting for Chevis' slate. He had ten years where he could have and should have sold to $FBMS for a large premium to today's price. The $PFBX over Chevis decades-long regime is anemic.

@jawagner92 May 8

Odd Lot Arbitrageur on X

MDVT is smaller and trades at approx. half the multiple of CMTV. Disclosure: long $MDVT

@jawagner92 May 8

Odd Lot Arbitrageur on X

Dominant local franchise: 5 branches and 56% deposit market share in Addison county. ~2/3 of loan book in resi mortgages. Owns most of its office locations and 50% of a $1.6b trust company in a JV with $CMTV.

@jawagner92 May 8

Odd Lot Arbitrageur on X

National Bank of Middlebury $MDVT: one of the oldest community banks in the country; received its charter in 1831. Trades at +/- 7x ntm earnings. https://t.co/ZryrKkgLGm

@ToffCap May 8 1 click

ToffCap on X

I'm perfectly fine doing this EVERY quarter $MRX https://t.co/xMuf6mnfZZ https://t.co/Jb4Fy7UUyi

TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/11/2026)

TSOH weekly roundup covers Meta’s child-safety settlement, Markel’s leadership transition, Peloton’s gym strategy and an upcoming Alarm.com…

MKL $21BPTON $2.1B

TSOH Investment Research Sep 11 2 clicks

Independence Realty Buying Centerspace: Opportunity And Implications

Independence Realty Trust is buying Centerspace in stock to create an $8.1 billion apartment REIT, targeting 5% 2027 Core FFO per-share…

IRT $3.8BCSR $925M

Dane Bowler Sep 11

NET Power (NPWR):

NET Power’s $1.80 shares are paired with January $2 covered calls for 40 cents as the company pivots from carbon capture to Permian…

NPWR $160M

Triple S Special Situations Investing Sep 11 2 clicks

Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) Stock Rating: Accumulate - Initiating Coverage

Joby Aviation is initiated at Accumulate after booking $116m of trailing revenue, forming a Toyota manufacturing venture and agreeing to…

JOBY $6.4B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 11

NewtekOne: Pivot Towards Holding Guaranteed Loans A Good Strategy

NewtekOne’s bank conversion and retention of SBA-guaranteed loans target recurring income, while a 6% yield and book-value valuation…

NEWT $326M

Stephen Nemo Sep 11

Sofwave Medical: Lifting Skin While the Beauty Sector Sags

Sofwave Medical grew Q2 revenue 43% as recurring usage fees reached 46% of sales for its non-invasive ultrasound skin-tightening devices.

SOFWF $359M

Substack von Philipp Sep 11 1 click

Zack Buckley on $PRTH's take private

Priority Technology’s chairman offered $6.00 to $6.15 a share to take PRTH private, while Zack Buckley argues Treasury Solutions and…

PRTH $643M

Yet Another Value Podcast Sep 10 3 clicks

Amplitude Q2 26 - Examining The Moat - Rating, Hold.

Amplitude reported Q2 revenue of $100.9 million, up 21%, as agentic AI and LLM vendors challenge the moat of its product analytics software.

AMPL $1.7B

Cestrian Capital Research. Sep 10

Single Stock Spotlight #14: Kosmos Energy (KOS)

Kosmos Energy (KOS) is pitched as an oil stock poised to outperform if oil stays above $70-$80, supported by a claimed 2 billion-barrel…

KOS $1.6B

Hidden Rock Capital's Newsletter Sep 10 2 clicks

BridgeBio Pharma: Attruby Peak Sales Set To Rise

BridgeBio Pharma raised Attruby peak-sales guidance as kidney-benefit data, fewer hospital days and competitor setbacks strengthen its…

BBIO $13B

Atticus Analysis Sep 10

UHS · long

Universal Health Svcs INC

Universal Health Services is a profitable hospital operator whose $146 share price over-discounts an earnings-collapse scenario.

UHS $11B

Value Investors Club Jun 14 5 clicks

TransDigm is still in it for the money

TransDigm’s sole-source aerospace parts generate roughly 70% aftermarket margins, with 90% of revenue tied to owned IP and 80% from…

TDG $61B

scuttleblurb Sep 10 1 click

Gaming And Leisure Properties: Guilty By Association With VICI

Gaming and Leisure Properties raised AFFO guidance and dividends after Q2, trading at 10.2 times forward AFFO with an 80% payout ratio and…

GLPI $11BVICI $26B

Dividend Collection Agency Sep 10

Quick Value #330 - Deckers Outdoor (DECK)

Deckers Outdoor has fallen about 60% from its late-2024 peak and trades at 11x earnings as HOKA growth slows.

DECK $11B

Value Don't Lie Sep 9 5 clicks

[scuttleslops] UNP-NSC merger, HEI, NVDA, AVGO, DG, DLTR

Union Pacific’s $85 billion Norfolk Southern merger pitch centers on a coast-to-coast rail network that cuts interchange delays and wins…

NSC $70B

scuttleblurb Sep 9 3 clicks

Dyne Therapeutics Remains A Buy Even As Novartis Trial Failure Hits DM1 Class

Dyne Therapeutics fell 16% after Novartis’ HARBOR failure raised doubts that RNA-targeting biomarker gains translate into functional…

DYN $3.1B

Petri Dish Reports Sep 9 1 click

ContextLogic Acquires gChem (LOGC): Update and Valuation

ContextLogic will acquire specialty-solvent maker gChem for $850 million, funded by a $650 million rights offering and $250 million of…

LOGC $675M

Hidden Gems Investing Sep 8 5 clicks

Lululemon: Deep Dive Analysis

Lululemon’s Q2 revenue fell 4% and Americas comparable sales 12%, as markdowns, tariffs and activewear rivals pressure its premium apparel…

LULU $11B

Hated Moats Sep 8 6 clicks

P&C Stocks Worth Owning: The AI Hedge with Ryan Tunis | The Real Eisman Playbook Episode 74

Ryan Tunis discusses P&C insurers, favoring Travelers over Chubb in a soft commercial market and calling AIG a near-book-value self-help…

TRV $75BAIG $40B

Steve Eisman Sep 7 7 clicks

Pinterest: Underlying Growth Remains Stronger Than The Market Thinks

Pinterest’s Q2 showed reaccelerating North American growth, while weaker international trends, AI-related engagement risks and elevated…

PINS $10B

Richard Durant Sep 7 2 clicks

Saturday, September 12, 2026

ToffCap on X

Fierce_beast on X

marginofdanger on X

Timyan Bank Alert on X

Odd Lot Arbitrageur on X

Odd Lot Arbitrageur on X

Odd Lot Arbitrageur on X

ToffCap on X

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