One of the Best Business Models in the World Just Went on Sale
AppLovin trades at 18 times EBITDA after a 57% drop, despite 84% EBITDA margins, rapid growth and a machine-learning advertising platform.
Thursday, September 10, 2026
Back to today
From X
catechwilliams on X
$AVO $CVGW 1) Retailers $CMG, etc sourcing elsewhere given MX tariff risk. 2) Avocado price spike during last year’s peak harvest season enabled distributors to realize outsized margins. 1-time benefit has reversed, significant earnings misses ahead for these commodity businesses
catechwilliams on X
$NX Outlandishly guiding to flat 2025 sales, customers and channel -DD. Commodity window and door components facing pricing pressure from larger customers ($JELD, $OC). Now levered 4x, trading at a premium to higher value-add building products peers. Guide cut inevitable.
catechwilliams on X
$J Beat earnings yesterday. Holding back detailed guidance for Investor Day (2/18)—likely raise ’25 #s, 4-year financial targets w significant upside on margins ($ACM and other peers +15% EBITDA margins). Record backlog and multi-year growth runway.
Voss Capital on X
The industrial logic for the $UNF and $CTAS merger captured in one picture. Both have been going to the Chipotle (or same strip center) near our office in Houston on the same days at the same time (the store was closed at the time this pic was taken). https://t.co/zxTIFVgn1s
catechwilliams on X
$NX Rapidly declining levered (4x) commodity biz. Q1’25 guide -12% sales, mgmt hoping for 2H’25 recovery. End-mkts deteriorating ($OC -20% Q4 guide, $JELD), customer losses, internal controls issues, integrating a large acq, 0 prior M&A experience. +30x P/E on best case 2025 #s
catechwilliams on X
@StockJabber Thank you. As a read on $PLUS Q3 is tracking in October, $CSCO just reported -23% sales in networking (products account for ~50% of $PLUS revenue) for the Oct quarter-end. Further confirmation that PLUS Q3 is going to be ugly and no turnaround in sight.
catechwilliams on X
$PLUS Accelerating, sales -14% y/y in Q2, noted Q3 not improving yet implied FY guide is for flat sales (downward revisions to come). Margins benefitted from 1-time financing segment gain-on-sale. Still trading at a premium to higher quality industry leader CDW, makes zero sense.
catechwilliams on X
$AS 50x P/E levered retail roll-up w only one decent asset (Arc’teryx). Stagnating in the US, nearly fully-penetrated in China. >$500 jackets didn’t work for $GOOS in Asia. Arc already bigger. Hyper promotional mgmt sent the stock skyward. This is going to be an epic crash.
Investor Letters
All letters- Pendelhaven Asset Management B.V. Q3 2026 ALM $4.2BJXN $8.8B
- Akre Capital Management, LLC Q3 2026 AMT $82BMA $487B
- Bristlemoon Capital Q3 2026 SNDK $276B
- Protean Funds August 2026 BVNKF $2.6B
- Janus Henderson Investors July 2026 KLAC $243BMCK $104B
- Asset Value Investors Ltd July 2026 9301 $3.3B
- Lindsell Train Limited July RMVEY $3.5B
- Kernow Asset Management July 2026 CKNHF $2.1BCMCX $2.6B
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Richard Durant 2 clicksA quick update on Deep Dives
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X-Energy Could Be Building One Of Nuclear Energy's Most Valuable Platforms
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Simple Investment Ideas 2 clicks
AppLovin Deep Dive: Not A No Brainer
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The Fed Is Going to Lose the Bond Market and I Found the Asset That Gets Paid When It Does
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Looking For A 2027 Defense Play: Honeywell Fits The Bill
Petri Dish Reports 3 clicks
TSOH Weekly Roundup (09/04/2026)
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[scuttleslops] VEEV, CRM, WDAY, SNPS, NVDA
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Intuit: The Recovery Is Only Beginning
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Treading Softly 5 clicks
Perpetual Futures and CME: What the Early Data Shows
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catechwilliams
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Deep Sail Capital
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DOMO Capital Management, LLC
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Timyan Bank Alert
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Investor letters we follow
- 1851 Capital
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